June 17, 2022
The latest projections of economic growth around the world issued by the World Bank projects Iran’s gross domestic product to grow by 3.7 percent this year, which is poor for the Middle East but still much better than the 2.6 percent growth forecast for the United States and 2.5 percent forecast for the European countries using the euro as their currency.
The World Bank June forecast of 3.7 percent growth is an improvement from its January forecast of 3.1 percent growth, reflecting the rising price of crude oil.
The global average GDP growth is now forecast at 5.3 percent, so Iran is expected to be far behind most countries. The average growth in the 19-country Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, running from Morocco to Iran, is projected at 5.6 percent for oil exporting countries and 4.1 percent for oil importers.
The highest growth projected in MENA is for Saudi Arabia, with 7.0 percent growth, and the lowest is projected for Syria with minus-2.6 percent.
Globally, the highest growth rate is projected to be 47.9 percent in Guyana, which is just starting to export oil. The lowest estimate is minus-45.1 percent for Ukraine. Russia’s economy is projected to contract by 8.9 percent.
The World Bank said GDP growth would slow in all regions except MENA, where higher oil and gas prices push the numbers up regionally, albeit not for oil importers.
The World Bank report, Global Economic Prospects, said, “Output in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2022, boosted by the waning of the pandemic and higher oil prices. Growth is expected to slow subsequently, however, as unresolved structural challenges and feeble fixed investment limit the country’s growth potential.”
It did not cite US sanctions as an impediment.
After 3.7 percent growth in 2022, the World Bank forecast that growth in Iran will slide to 2.7 percent in 2023 and 2.3 percent in 2024.
