in return during their ongoing negotiations. They have only said that they presented Iran with a list of proposals supported by all six when the talks resumed last Wednesday.
The bottom lines for the Big Six are all public demands stated in the resolutions of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). These include the following:
• Halting all uranium enrichment
• Ratifying the IAEA “Additional Protocol,” which allows the IAEA to inspect sites that Iran has not formally declared to be locations of nuclear work.
• Adhering to Code 3.1 of Iran’s Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA, which requires Iran to provide more information to the IAEA than it does now. Iran says it has withdrawn from Code 3.1. The IAEA says no country can withdraw unilaterally.
• Cooperating with the IAEA sufficiently to resolve all outstanding questions on Iran’s past nuclear research that might be related to military matters.
• Suspending work on all heavy-water related projects, which includes a reactor under construction at Arak for many years.
It appears, however, that the Big Six has a short list of immediate actions it wants from Iran, far short of the complete list above. News reports and comments by officials suggest there are three immediate demands:
• Ending all enrichment to 20 percent, and confining enrichment work to less than 5 percent.
• Shipping abroad all existing 20 percent enriched stocks. This would presumably exclude 20 percent enriched uranium that has been made into fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor. Once in that form, uranium is not usable for weapons work.
• Close the Fordo enrichment plant, which is built into the side of a mountain on a military base near Qom. It has room for about 3,000 centrifuges versus space for 54,000 centrifuges at the main enrichment site at Natanz. It thus is not needed space for enrichment. But Iran sees it as more defensible from air attack than Natanz. It isn’t clear that the US really cares about this and it may just be a “demand” intended to be dropped in a compromise with Tehran.
It is fully understood by everyone that the Big Six must offer Iran some benefits to induce compliance. Iran has said publicly that it wants sanctions ended.
The Russian government has suggested a step-by-step process in which some sanctions would be removed each time Iran took some concrete action to comply with UNSC and IAEA demands. Both the United States and Iran have said they find that approach appealing. The Big Six offer last week, however, does not appear to include any sanctions relief for Iran’s compliance with the short list of demands cited above.
According to news leaks and comments by officials, the Big Six offer of sweeteners appears to include the following:
• No new sanctions. The sanctions signed by President Obama last December, which come into effect June 28, and the sanctions approved by the EU foreign ministers in January, which take effect July 1, are not considered new. The sanctions legislation wending its way through Congress now would be considered new. Obama would presumably have to veto them if they passed after Iran accepted the Big Six offer.
• Aircraft parts. The United States has embargoed the sale of civilian as well as military aircraft spare parts to Iran for decades. Iran has regularly complained about this, since the basic fleet of passenger planes the Islamic Republic inherited was largely American-made and many parts found in European-made Airbuses are from the United States. The United States seems to feel this is a major concession to Iran and a good confidence-builder. But Iran has never been stopped from flying Boeings or Airbuses. It has been able to buy parts on the black market without any apparent difficulty, although it presumably must pay a markup for them.
• Suspension of EU re-insurance ban. This has turned out to be a very major part of the new EU sanctions. Tanker firms from countries that want to continue buying Iranian crude are backing away because they cannot get enough insurance. Almost all insurance firms re-insure in Europe—but cannot do that after July 1. Thus, insurance firms are now offering only very limited insurance—no more than $50 million for each shipment—whereas tankers usually carry $1 billion or more per shipment to cover the claims they would face in the event of a major oil spill.
• Provision of medical isotopes. Iran makes medical isotopes at its Tehran Research Reactor. This offer suggests the Big Six don’t think Iran will be able to operate that reactor efficiently enough to produce all the isotopes it needs.
• Fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. This offer further implies that the Big Six don’t respect Iran’s claims to be able to make quality fuel for that reactor. But the offer is really meant to obviate any need for Iran to enrich to 20 percent. If Iran’s nuclear program has no military component, then Iran has no need for fuel enriched above 5 percent except for the Tehran reactor. By supplying 20 percent fuel, the Big Six remove the justification for Iran to enrich beyond 5 percent.
• Nuclear safety cooperation. This is in the interest of the Big Six and regional countries as much as of Iran. The offer is to help Iran improve its safety measures at its nuclear sites. This offer also implies that the Big Six do not expect that Iran will ever agree to a complete halt to enrichment and that they are thinking of what to do to make the program that remains in Iran safer for all.
• Technical assistance to energy industry. This phrase has not been explained.
• Help in fighting drug smuggling. The United States and Britain have provided some help in past years, but not recently. Washington calculates that Iran and the United States share an interest in combating drug smuggling and that this is a good confidence-building measure. Accept for confidence-building, this is not of direct concern to the United States as no measurable quantity of drugs that passes through Iran ends up in the United States.
• Reaffirm Iran’s right to a nuclear program. This is rhetoric, but rhetoric that Iran has said it wants. Iran says it has a right to enrich under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Bush SAdministration publicly endorsed Iran’s right to nuclear power plants like Bushehr, but was silent on enrichment of uranium. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said Iran lost its right to enrich uranium when it was found in violation of its nuclear treaty obligations by the IAEA and UNSC. Four UNSC resolutions demand Iran halt enrichment. Any affirmation of Iran’s right to enrich at this point would likely be highly conditional, stating that Iran has the right once it complies with all the UNSC demands.
