Ahmed Qalebani, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) reported the new gas discovery last Monday. Qalebani said Iran had discovered a field with estimated gas-in-place of 495 billion cubic meters of which 80 percent was recoverable.
He said the field, named Madar, also had 1.5 billion barrels of gas condensate, of which 658 million barrels were recoverable. The discovery was made on land just east of the Persian Gulf port city of Assaluyeh.
This is not the first, but certainly the largest, gas discovery that Iran has reported in the past two years.
The London-based Business Monitor International wrote that it “remains skeptical about the veracity of Iran’s improbably large oil and gas discoveries in 2010-11.”
It said it thought the claims were intended to entice foreign investors into Iranian oil and gas by making it appear that Iran is a bigger player in the oil and gas realm than it really it is. BMI said, however, “These discovery announcements are unlikely to succeed in their goal of enticing more foreign investment into Iran’s upstream segment so long as Western energy sanctions remain in place.”
BMI said it doubts very much that this reported field really has recoverable reserves of such a size and “until further information is provided it will not be factored into our forecasts.”
It wrote, “Iran has been reporting improbably large—and unverifiable—oil and gas discoveries since the beginning of 2010, when foreign companies began leaving the country ahead of the imposition of Western energy sanctions against the Islamic Republic. This is in all likelihood an attempt by Iran to entice more foreign investment into its upstream segment.”
BMI also pointed out that Iran in the past year has twice revised up its proven oil estimates, from 138 billion barrels to 155 billion barrels, as part of a one-upmanship battle with Iraq.
“More oil and gas discovery announcements are sure to follow in 2011 and beyond,” BMI wrote. “But given the lack of verifiable data, BMI remains skeptical regarding their veracity. We also do not expect a significant rise in foreign investment in Iran’s upstream segment so long as Western sanctions remain in place.”
