An Iraq-US agreement signed in 2008 calls for all American troops to be gone by December 31. The United States would like to keep 3,000 to 10,000 troops in Iraq chiefly to train Iraqi combat units and to act as a backup if they run into trouble. But the Iraqi political parties, most of which quietly want some US troops to stay, are reluctant to get out in front and make any such proposal.
Sadr, who has been studying in Qom the last few years, issued a statement Sunday on his website that said:
“Out of my desire to complete Iraq’s independence and to finish the withdrawal of the occupation forces from our holy lands, I am obliged to halt military operations of the honest Iraqi resistance until the withdrawal of the occupation forces is complete.” He quickly added that “if the withdrawal doesn’t happen,… the military operations will be resumed in a new and tougher way.”
It wasn’t clear if this reflected the view of the Islamic Republic and the Pasdaran, which runs Iran’s programs in Iraq.
The United States accused Iran in July of pumping up militia groups with explosives and urging them to increase their scale of attacks on Americans. As a result, the number of Americans killed in July, 15, was the highest monthly toll in years. But in August, the toll was zero, suggesting to many that the Pasdaran had changed its mind about its tactics.
Many American analysts thought Iran was upping the level of attacks on US troops so it could claim to have been the reason for the Americans leaving in December. But most Iraqis know of the agreement obliging the Americans to leave if the Iraqis don’t ask for some to stay and Iran doesn’t admit supporting the militias attacking the Americans so it cannot claim victory.
The one clear result of the July surge in attacks was that it gave new Defense Secretary Leon Panetta a platform for strong rhetoric criticizing he Islamic Republic.
Sadr’s comments reflect the view that the Americans are more likely to leave if things are quiet in Iraq and more likely to push the Iraqi government to let them stay if there is more disorder.
Many in Iran believe that the chief interest the United States has for staying in Iraq is to counter Iranian influence. Many in the United States believe that should be the chief US role.