September 20-2013
by Warren L. Nelson
Iranian officials have taken to boasting that the US backs tracked on its threat to bomb Syria because of the Islamic Republic’s power and might. But they are silent on what really concerns them—that the Russians totally ignored Tehran in negotiating an end to the Syrian chemical weapons program.
The regime has been desperate to make the Russian-American agreement over Syria look like a victory for Iran rather than an example of impotence.
It is one thing for Iran to be ignored by Washington when it makes policy. It is something else for Iran to be ignored by Moscow when it makes policy in the one area where Iran likes to brag that it and Russia are allies working hand-in-hand to support the Syrian government.
Majlis Deputy Abbas Mansuri-Arani, a member of the National Security Committee, tried hard to make the case for Iran’s influence over Syria—as well as everything else that happens in the Middle East.
“Our influence in Saudi Arabia and Iraq was quite clear to the US,” he asserted, oddly pairing the Arab country where Iran may have the most influence, Iraq, with the one where it may have the least influence, Saudi Arabia.
“Americans know that the Islamic Republic of Iran has special influence over the region. So they checked to see how serious Iran was in supporting Syria. As they saw the steadfastness of the Leader and the people, they understood our country’s devotion in support of Syria.”
He said, “The US and the West came to understand that they could not overlook Iran as a pivotal regional power. So the power of Iran had a special role in the cancellation of the attack on Syria.”
This totally erased the influence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in negotiating the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons with his US counterpart.
Arani did give a passing mention to Russia’s role. “As for Syria, there were two factors [deterring an American attack]. The first was the Syrian people and their leader who, by their public mobilization, showed their will to defend their country. The second was the role of regional powers such as Iran, as an influential power in the Islamic world and the Middle East, as well as Russia and China.”
He said, “The fact that no war broke out in the region is a welcome thing and we appreciate it. We have mustered all our power and capacity to reduce tension in the region and prevent unpleasant incidents and war.” That ignored the fact that a huge war continues inside Syria with Iranian military support.
Another Majlis deputy described the anticipated reaction from Tehran as the main reason behind Washington’s decision to give up the idea of a military strike on Syria. He, too, brushed Russia’s actions aside.
“When our military commanders introduced Syria as the red line and the Leader of the Islamic revolution sensibly elaborated on Syrian developments, the Americans came to realize that Iran as the regional superpower can hamstring the US in the Middle East, and no power can ignore the Islamic Republic of Iran’s red lines,” Deputy Javad Karimi-Qoddousi said. Like Arani, he is a member of the National Security Committee
Karimi-Qoddousi said US officials chose not to suffer a heavy military and historical loss by attacking Syria.
He also said Syria is regarded as the axis and the birthplace of the anti-Israel “resistance front” in the Middle Eas, adding that countries supporting the “resistance front” have lined up against the United States. He did not note that the “resistance front” has been reduced to Syria and Iran in recent years.
Karimi-Qoddousi said possible reactions from Hezbollah and the Damascus government were other reasons the US avoided military action against Syria.
“Americans knew that if they attacked Syria, their warships and destroyers deployed to the Mediterranean Sea would be struck by resistance missiles,” he said. Russia’s efforts went unmentioned.
While the public media are filled with such paeans to Iranian power and influence, the private meetings of officials are more likely filled with discussions of how Iran should respond to the Russian slight.
One option is that Iran will simply ignore it and hope that by filling the airwaves with rhetoric like that of Deputies Arani and Karimi-Qoddousi the Iranian public will not notice the slight. But it is also likely that Tehran will decide to confront Moscow, make clear that it is offended by the treatment and hope thereby to extract some concession on some other issue from the Russians.