Many analysts are questioning that popular viewpoint, saying Iran may actually lose because so many Arabs see its hand working to promote Shia uprisings in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
But there is another possible winner that is rarely talked about.
Qatar.
Qatar, of course, is puny. It has just 1.7 million people. It looks a little like a tumor growing on the side of the Arabian peninsula. How could it possibly become a power in the Islamic world?
First, there is Al-Jazeera, by far the most popular television news station in the Arabic-speaking world. It’s not just popular. It’s respected. And it is based in Qatar and underwritten by the Qatari royal family, which doesn’t seem to object to hearing the clash of ideas. That has gained it brownie points around the Arab world. And it may give Qatar more leverage in the new era that emerges from the current unrest.
Second, there is the World Cup. Qatar astounded everyone when it got the right to host soccer’s premier competition in 2022. It won’t gain all the benefits of being host for another decade. But already, its selection serves to demonstrate to Arabs that it has been recognized as competent and worthy by the leaders of the sport. That gives it some added leverage.
Third, Qatar has just sent a third of its air force to Greece, from where it is flying daily missions over Libya. This doesn’t and won’t make it a global military power. But it shows major world powers that Qatar is willing to act, to put its money where its mouth is, unlike most other Arab states, which are generally viewed as little more than hot air by the rest of the world. That gives Qatar an entrée to the corridors of power, and that automatically conveys some added leverage.
Gen. Mubarak al-Khayanin, chief of staff of the Qatari Air Force, said, “We are physically a small country. But with leadership comes responsibility. Certain countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt haven’t taken leadership for the last three years. So we wanted to step up and express ourselves, and see if others will follow.”
That suggests big ambitions. It also recognizes a power vacuum, and eagerness to fill that vacuum.
Qatar may be in for a fall. It may be punching far above its weight.
However, Shadi Hamid, director of research at The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar, said joining the Libya coalition is a way for Qatar to bank some goodwill with the West.
“The US, Britain, and France are going to remember who supported them in this operation, and who helped them build a broader and more robust coalition” — especially those who contributed military might, Hamid said.
The UAE also agreed to join in the Libyan effort last week — reversing an earlier decision to limit its role to humanitarian aid — and plans now to commit six F-16 and six Mirage aircraft to enforcing the no-fly zone.
Qatar is doing other things to try to influence the Arab world. It has acted as a peace broker in both Lebanon and Sudan. Qatar’s capital, Doha, hosts several branches of American universities and the Middle East headquarters of the US Army’s Central Command.
Theodore Karasik of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai told the Associated Press the Libya intervention is yet another example of Qatar’s desire to become “a foreign policy powerhouse.…
“It goes along with their attitude that they are the go-to country for resolving political and strategic questions throughout the … region,” he said.
But Gen. Khayanin told the AP his country’s goal was simpler: “To make sure the Libyan people are not being killed. You cannot go halfway — and we are ready to go as long as it takes.”
Qatar has about 200 pilots and maintenance crewmen at Greece’s Souda air base on the island of Crete. The Qataris have been paired with the French and are flying missions with them. That is partly because the two countries have worked and trained together for years under bilateral defense accords.