The poll results suggest that the United States would not face an immense outpouring of angry opposition around the world if it should in the end use force against Iran. Outright majorities in most countries, though not large majorities, were willing to accept military action as a last resort to stop an Iranian nuclear weapons program. Even in Egypt 52 percent accepted military action while only 17 percent were willing to accept a nuclear Iran.
These poll results would appear to contradict a popular view expressed in the United States that a military attack on Iran by the US would undermine its position throughout the world.
The results of the Pew Global Attitudes survey were published this week, shortly after the Iranian state media carried stories of a non-existent poll that the state media said showed European opposition even to the use of sanctions against Iran.
The Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project conducted the poll from March 17
to April 20 both with telephone and face-to-face interviews.
The poll found almost universal opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
In the West, that opposition was overwhelming with more than 90 percent in almost every Western country opposed to Tehran obtaining nuclear weapons. This opposition is effectively unchanged since the first Pew Global Attitudes survey on this issue in 2006.
Russians and Chinese also oppose the Iranian nuclear weapons program, but less strongly. In Russia, 77 percent are against Tehran acquiring nuclear armaments. In China, 54 percent oppose it, down 15 points from 2007.
Iran’s regional neighbors generally would rather not see an Iranian nuclear arsenal. But opinions vary and are fluid. Strong majorities of Jordanians (76%) and Egyptians (66%) oppose Tehran acquiring nuclear weaponry, while a bare majority of Turks (54%) object and Tunisians are evenly divided (42% favor, 43% oppose).
Pakistan was the only country polled where there was substantial support for a nuclear Iran, with 50 percent approving and a mere 11 percent opposed. In no other country were the results anything like those in Pakistan.
Lebanon is an interesting sectarian case study. Overall, the Lebanese oppose Iran having nuclear weapons by 62 percent to 35 percent. But there is a deep cleavage among religious groups: 94 percent of Sunni Muslims are against the Iranian nuclear program, putting them on a par with Westerners. But 73 percent of Shia Muslims support it. Christians were divided with 61 percent opposed to a nuclear Iran and 31 percent supporting it, apparently reflecting the growing number of Christians who are now allied with Lebanon’s Shias and see Iran as a bulwark against Sunni Muslims.
It is important to note that the poll showed views within the Middle East are changing. Since 2006, opposition to an Iranian weapons program is up 34 percentage points in Jordan and 24 points in Egypt, but down 11 points in Turkey since last year and seven points in Lebanon since 2006.
Turning to economic sanctions, support for a tough approach generally exceeds two-thirds in most countries. In the eight EU counties polled, support for tougher sanctions ranged from 70-to-80 percent with the exception of Greece where a small majority of 55 percent backed tougher sanctions.
But PressTV, the English-language arm of state broadcasting in Iran, reported this month that a poll by the German Marshall Fund showed precisely the opposite, with 61 percent of European polled opposing tough new sanctions and only 35 percent favoring them. But the German Marshall Fund told the Iran Times it has taken no such poll It said it has asked PressTV for a correction, but that PressTV has not responded.
Outside the EU, there are notable exceptions to the support for tougher sanctions. Russia is evenly divided with 46 percent supporting tougher sanctions and 42 percent opposed. The fact that even a plurality supports tougher sanctions is interesting given that the Russian government is very loudly opposed to any more sanctions.
In China and Turkey, slight majorities oppose tougher sanctions. That may reflect Chinese fears about getting enough oil and Turkey’s emphasis on more trade with Iran.
Support for sanctions is actually eroding in Russia and China. Just 46 percent of Russians who oppose the Iranian nuclear program back new sanctions, down from 67 percent in 2010. In China, 38 percent favor more sanctions, a drop of 20 percentage points over the last two years.
In some countries, there is a generation gap among those who oppose a nuclear-armed Iran. Sanctions are generally supported by the young. But in Britain, people aged 18-29 are 17 points less likely to back sanctions than people 50 years of age and older. Similarly, in France the young are 14 points less likely than their elders to be supportive. And in the United States they are 13 points less likely.
Among those who oppose Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, Americans are the most willing to take military action if necessary to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapons program. The British and, most surprisingly, the Germans lean toward the use of military force, while the French are split. The Russians and the Chinese show no support for a military strike and lean toward accepting a nuclear Iran.
If necessary to keep Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, 63 percent in the US are willing to go to war. And that proportion has not changed significantly since 2010. Only 28 percent are ready to accept a nuclear-armed Iran.
In Europe, however, only about half of those who oppose an Iranian nuclear program agree. Thus, there is a significant 12-13 point transatlantic divide on whether to take military action if talks fail.
Much less than a third of the public in Russia and China would back a military solution. Roughly 40 percent want to avoid war, even if that means Tehran gets the bomb. But a third volunteer that they reject both options or have no opinion.
By considerable margins, Egyptians and Jordanians who oppose Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons would support military action against Iran. But the Turks are very leery of the use of force. Barely a quarter (26%) would agree to military intervention in Iran, while 42 percent want to avoid a military conflict even if that means the Iranians develop a nuclear weapons capacity.
Since World War II, both the Germans and the Japanese have normally opposed the use of force around the world. But a majority of Germans are willing to see force used in this case. In Japan, a narrow plurality would accept a nuclear Iran (49%) over the use of force (40%). But sentiment in Japan is shifting. In 2010, 55 percent of Japanese supported avoiding conflict at all cost. Today only 49 percent hold that position.