by Warren L. Nelson
The orbit of Iran’s newest satellite, Fajr, is decaying rapidly and it does not look like it will stay up anywhere near the year-and-a-half that Iran announced when it lofted Fajr into orbit February 2.
The satellite after launch was circling the earth with an apogee (high point) of 471 kilometers and a perigee (low point) of 224 kilometers. But in one week it has fallen dramatically. As of Tuesday, the high point was 409 kilometers and the low point was 219 kilometers—a loss of 13 percent on the high end and 2 percent on the low end.
After the launch, the government announced that the Fajr contained thrusters that would allow it to adjust its orbit so it could stay in orbit a full 1 1/2 years. But the space agency has said nothing more about the thrusters and the constant loss of altitude suggests nothing is being done with any thrusters. The purpose of the thrusters would be to boost the lower end of its orbit higher to enable to stay in orbit longer.
In fact, the space agency has said very little about Fajr since it was orbited. Government officials not linked to the space program have been saying a great deal, however.
The constantly repeated theme is that the launch proves how ineffective the American sanctions have been, how Iran has been able to defeat sanctions and put yet another satellite in orbit. For example, Deputy Defense Minister Mohammad Eslami said that the Fajr was “completely indigenous,” thereby proving the utter futility of the American-led sanctions imposed on Iran
However, the satellite actually suggests that the sanctions have seriously degraded Iran’s space program—or that something else is seriously undermining the program.
To begin with, Iran had not launched a satellite for three years—a very long period of inactivity by any standard. It was especially long given that Iran had repeatedly announced plans to launch multiple satellites long before Fajr went into orbit.
Furthermore, the latest launch did not show any advance in technology. The satellite weighed only 52 kilos, a mere two kilos more than the previous satellite. It was put into obit by the old Safir rocket, not by the newer and larger Simorgh that Iran has long been saying would replace the Safir for satellite launches.
The next key measure will be how long Fajr stays in orbit. Iran’s previous three satellites survived 80 days, 21 days and 60 days before falling to earth. None was impressive and the second and third satellites failed to show any improvement on the first. With the government saying Fajr will remain in orbit 1-1/2 years, it has set a new standard. But it remains to be seen if Fajr will last even as long as the previous three satellites.
The US State Department cited the launch last week as evidence of the need to restrict Iran’s missile program as part of the ongoing nuclear negotiations, since a rocket that can orbit a satellite can theoretically deliver a nuclear warhead on the other side of the globe. The State Department has said this many times before.
Iran immediately denounced the remarks, saying—as it has many times—that Iran’s missile program is not a subject of the nuclear talks. The agreement that governs the talks says that the contents of the four UN Security Council resolutions on Iran are all part of the talks, and Iran’s missile program is addressed in those resolutions.
Last month, several conservative media outlets reported that President Rohani had closed down parts of the Iranian space program, which was picked up by some other news reports as the cancellation of the entire space program. Actually, all Rohani did was move the program from the president’s office to the Telecommunications Ministry, from which President Ahmadi-nejad had moved it in 2010.
Meanwhile, Southgate Amateur Radio News reports the Fajr’s telemetry downlink was discovered at 437.538 megahertz, which happens to be in a ham radio band.
Last week’s Iran Times report on the Fajr launch contained two major typos, erroneously stating that Iran’s third satellite stayed aloft 80 days instead of 60 and incorrectly listing the Fajr’s highest altitude as 271 kilometers rather than 471. Those errors are corrected in this article.
