April 15, 2016
More young Arabs see Iran in a positive light, but that appears to be reflecting the growing divide between Sunni and Shia in the Arab world as a majority declares Iran to be an enemy.
A new poll of Arabs aged 18 to 24, shows the UAE is seen as the best country in the region to live in, that the United States is surprisingly respected (except in Iraq) and that the Islamic State has little appeal.
Only 13% of Arab youths said they could imagine themselves supporting the Islamic State even if it did not use much violence, down from 19% last year, while 50% saw it as the biggest problem facing the Middle East, up from 37% last year, according to the eighth annual Arab Youth Survey.
However, concern is mounting across the region as a chronic lack of jobs and opportunities were cited as the principal factor feeding terrorist recruitment. In eight of the 16 countries surveyed, employment problems were a bigger pull factor for the Islamic State than religious views.
Asked, “Who is your country’s biggest ally?” 31% named Saudi Arabia, 28% named the UAE and 25% named the United States. Iran was in sixth place with 13 percent naming it as their country’s biggest ally. But only 1 percent named Iran in the surveys in 2012 and 2013, so 13% was a dramatic jump.
However, 52% say Iran is their country’s biggest enemy, far higher than the 32 percent labeling the United States that way. That suggests the Islamic Republic’s campaign to present itself as the friend of young Arabs and the United States as the enemy of mankind is not working very well.
Iran’s high ranking is largest confined to a few countries—Iraq, where 51% see Iran as the biggest ally, Lebanon at 49% and Palestine at 43%. Elsewhere, the view of Iran is fairly dim.
The survey found that five years after the start of the Arab spring, most young people prioritize stability over democracy. Optimism that the region would be better off in the wake of the 2011 uprisings has been steadily declining.
In 2016, only 36% of young people said they felt the Arab world was in better shape following the upheaval, down from 72% in 2012. The majority (53%) agreed that maintaining stability was more important than promoting democracy (28%). In 2011, 92% of Arab youth said “living in a democracy” was their most cherished wish.
Concern about poor job prospects was observed across the Arab world, where one in four 15- to 24-year-olds are jobless – the highest youth unemployment on the planet, according to World Bank.
The survey found that 47% believed Sunni-Shia relations are deteriorating and 52% felt religion played too big a role in the region—not a good sign that the Islamic Republic’s message can get a foothold.
With regard to the United States, a surprising 63% consider it an ally and 32% an enemy.
Lack of democracy was cited as the biggest obstacle facing the Middle East by 22%, compared with 50% pointing to the Islamic State. But two-thirds of young Arabs (67%) still want their leaders to do more to improve their personal freedoms and the human rights of citizens, particularly women.
The survey found that the United Arab Emirates is viewed by young Arabs as “a model country” that is economically secure, and is the most favored nation to live in and set up a business.
Nearly one in four (22%) cited the UAE – a federation without elected institutions – as the country they would most like to live in. A similar number said it is the nation they would most like their own country to emulate (23%). Second place went to the United States, which 15 percent said they would like to live in.
More young Arabs get their daily news online than from TV or print media, according to the survey – while 32% said they get their daily news online, 29% watch TV news and just 7% read newspapers daily (down from 13% in 2015).
The Arab Youth Survey 2016 polled 3,500 youths aged 18 to 24. The poll was carried out by international polling firm Penn Schoen Berland for Asda’a Burson-Marsteller. Respondents were from Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE and Yemen.
