The US Justice Department has been very careful not to blame anyone outside the Qods Force. It isn’t even blaming other officers of the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guard), of which the Qods Force is a subordinate branch.
Immediately after the charges against Manssor Arbabsiar were filed last year, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against four Qods Force officers: Ali-Gholam Shakuri, who was the “case officer” in direct contact with Arbabsiar; Abdul-Reza Shalai, Shakuri’s boss and Arbabsiar’s cousin; Hamed Abdollahi, whose position hasn’t been publicized; and Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Qods Force.
It isn’t known for certain how Abdollahi and Soleimani were tabbed as being involved. However, US government officials briefing the media said they showed Arbabsiar seven photos that included two Qods Force officers they thought might be involved, and Arbabsiar picked out both of those photos, saying he had met with those men in meetings held in Tehran to lay out the murder plan.
US officials, including Attorney General Eric Holder, have stated on the record that they have no evidence taking the plot any higher than Soleimani, the major general commanding the Qods Force.
But many officials and analysts say they believe Khamenehi knew and approved of the murder plot.
Some analysts argue, however, that Soleimani and the Qods Force have been given wide latitude and can act on their own. That certainly appears to be true with Iraq, where Soleimani picks targets and actions without higher reference. Soleimani has even boasted to intermediaries that he is the Iranian who decides what will be done in Iraq.
But many analysts with intelligence experience say it is unlikely that Soleimani would have the same leeway to initiate actions in other countries where the Qods Force does not routinely carry out violent actions.
They note that Iran used to carry out assassinations all around the world, chiefly gunning down or stabbing Iranian dissidents. But those killings were halted in the mid-1990s when the publicity from assassinations gone bad proved exceedingly embarrassing.
Conducting killings in Iraq and Afghanistan is one thing. But to resume murders in the West would seem, to many analysts, to require the assent of the Supreme Leader.
The second issue is targeting a Saudi diplomat. Several Saudi diplomats were targeted two decades ago when Iran was incensed over the killing of almost 300 Iranian hajjis in Mecca in 1987. But Iran and Saudi Arabia eventually resolved that dispute. To resume the targeting of Saudis would be a change in policy that would seem to demand the agreement of the Supreme Leader, many analysts say.
The third element is the conduct of a violent act on American soil. Again, that has been done in the past. Shortly after the revolution, Iran plotted with one of the American black Muslims who guarded its embassy in Washington to carry out both a murder and a bombing. First, the American, David Belfield, firebombed the offices of the Iran Times in June 1980. Days later, Belfield posed as a post office deliveryman to gain access to the home of Ali-Akbar Tabatabai, the press officer at the embassy under the Shah, where he shot the man at point blank range and killed him. Belfield then drove to Montreal and flew to Tehran, where he still lives as a protected person.
But the murder and bombing were more than 30 years ago. To resume such tactics on American soil would be a change of policy after so many years and, many analysts say, require the approval of the Supreme Leader.
Another question is whether President Ahmadi-nejad had any say in the operation. Most analysts think he has no say at all in Qods Force actions. The Pasdaran and Qods Force come directly under the command of the Supreme Leader. The president has no command role—at least not this president—in the eyes of most analysts.
With regard to Khamenehi’s approval role, the US Justice Department doesn’t necessarily disagree. But it spent its time putting together a court case against Arbabsiar and emphasized that the courtroom quality evidence it had would not allow the accusations to go to Khamenehi. Only Arbabsiar and Shakuri, with whom Arbabsiar spoke over the phone while the FBI recorded the conversations, were indicted.