December 23, 2016
The Central Bank last week reported that the economy had taken off and grown at the startling pace of 7.4 percent in the first half of the current Persian year.
According to the CIA Factbook, in 2015, only seven countries out of more than 200 in the world enjoyed a growth rate above 7.4 percent for the full year, so there were some doubts about the Central Bank’s figure.
With the presidential election due in just five months, many cynics expect the government to start pumping out a lot of positive news in an effort to convince Iranians that the economy Is taking off under the policies of President Rohani.
Three months ago, the Central Bank said the annualized growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4 percent. Then last week, it said the annualized growth rate for the first half was 7.4 percent. It didn’t give the figure for the second quarter, but mathematically it would have to be an astounding 9.4 percent to produce the first half figure reported by the Central Bank.
For 2015, only two countries showed a rate of growth that good or better for the entire year—the Turks & Caicos Islands at 9.4 percent and Ethiopia at 10.2 percent.
The president’s budget submitted earlier this month forecast growth in the coming Persian year of 7.7 percent. That is short of the five-year plan goal of 8 percent, but still wildly high with only a single country last year exceeding that rate of growth.
Growth rates have generally been falling throughout the world. China, which for years led the economic growth tables, reported growth of 6.9 percent in 2015, making it 14th in the world.
Here are the World Bank figures for Iranian growth:
2017 4.6 forecast
2016 4.2 forecast
2015 0.9
2014 3.7
2013 -1.9
2012 -6.6
2011 3.9
2010 1.0
2009 2.3
2008 1.5
2007 6.4
2006 5.2
2005 3.3
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued new forecasts this week, projecting GDP growth this Persian year of 6.6 percent due to the surge in oil sales last spring, but projecting growth in the next Persian year will fall to 3.5 percent “as oil production normalizes and non-oil sector growth remains modest.”
