by Warren L. Nelson
The Islamic Republic blinked last week. It backed off its constantly insisted demand that no UN inspectors ever be allowed to set foot on any Iranian military base.
The Iranian demand—which has been repeated hundreds, if not thousands, of times in recent months—is now in the trash.
The shift is especially embarrassing for the regime given that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi has himself given voice to the demand over and over again. He first listed it as one of the seven firm demands he outlined for a nuclear agreement on April 9, and he repeated it as recently as last Wednesday, just four days before the regime reversed course.
But the reversal also sends a message to the world that the Islamic Republic’s red lines are really a rather light pink.
Most importantly, the shift telegraphs clearly that the Islamic Republic is desperate to reach a nuclear accord with the Big Six. The demand that no inspector from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could ever go onto an Iranian military base was a showstopper that even the Russians and Chinese have never embraced.
The United States and the European countries would never agree that any territory Iran should declare to be a military base would automatically be off-limits to inspectors and effectively be a sanctuary in which Iran could do whatever it wished in violation of a nuclear accord.
Iran’s nuclear negotiators have known that all along, but it was only this past week that they were apparently able to convince the Supreme Leader that Iran’s policy had to change or there would be no nuclear agreement—and no end to sanctions.
It appears Khamenehi was serious about the demand and not just toadying to the military. Otherwise, he would not have repeated the demand so frequently and phrased the demand in clear and unqualified terms. Many other nuclear demands have been phrased in vague and ambiguous terms that have allowed much leeway for an agreement. But Khamenehi was unusually precise and clear when talking about barring all foreigners from military bases.
He could, for example, have barred all Americans from military bases. But he didn’t. He banned all foreigners. Now he must backtrack.
Most of the noise about forbidding nuclear inspections on military bases has come from Iran’s generals, who have treated the issue almost as if it were existential.
There was one exception, however. In early April, Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari, the commander of the Pasdaran, endorsed the parameters of the agreement outlined by the United States, saying Iran’s “principles and red lines” had been accepted “by the enemy.” The US State Department fact sheet outlining the preliminary agreement last month said Iran would be required to grant the IAEA access to “suspicious sites” anywhere in Iran.
Jafari said the schedule for removing sanctions remained to be negotiated and could lead to disagreement, but he never mentioned the issue of inspections on military bases—and he has not been seen to join in the chorus of other generals denouncing such inspections since then.
The question now is whether Iran’s generals have been shushed and will turn silent or whether the debate will continue.
The shift in policy was explained to the Majlis in a closed-door session Sunday by Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s deputy nuclear negotiator. Interestingly, he was given the job of breaking the news. Foreign Minister Moham-mad-Javad Zarif was present, but apparently avoided the topic, leaving Araqchi as the sacrificial lamb if things went poorly.
Araqchi outlined Iran’s new position with appropriate ambiguity, which is the height of accepted Persian oratory, but which comes across to Americans as mush-mouthed vacuity.
He said that no IAEA inspections could go beyond the confines of the Additional Protocol, an IAEA document that provides more inspection options for the IAEA than the decades-old options allowed under Iran’s “safeguards agreement” with the IAEA.
What he didn’t explain is that the Additional Protocol is not the same for all countries that sign on. The Additional Protocol is tailored individually for each country. That leaves much opportunity for Iran’s Additional Protocol to allow more and easier inspections than in other countries.
The key phrase acknowledging that Iran has dropped it ban on base inspections was Araqchi’s announcement that “managed access” to bases would be authorized. “Managed access” is a term Iran has resorted to often in the last few years. What it means precisely is unclear—and it probably doesn’t have any precise definition, allowing for maximum flexibility.
But the gist, for the purpose of coping with hardliners, is that IAEA inspectors wouldn’t have free run of any military bases, but would only be able to go to limited and specific sites under escort by Iranian officials.
And that is understood to be fine with the IAEA. Although hardliners have talked as if the West wants to flood Iran’s bases with spies poking into every room and closet, that has never been the case. Essentially, the IAEA wants access to sites that have aroused its suspicions, largely when foreign satellites find odd activity at a building.
Some nuclear specialists have said the IAEA doesn’t even need access to the interior of a building, just access to the air outside it from which to take samples to test for radioactivity. If radioactivity were found, access to the interior would be a follow-up step.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said last week that Iran is insisting that the IAEA must give 24 days notice before it would gain “managed access” to the air outside a suspect building. Fabius treated that as an outlandish request; “A lot of things can disappear” in 24 days, he said. A 24-day delay would make mincemeat of the Additional Protocol’s requirement for immediate access to suspicious sites.
Majlis Deputy Ahmad Shuhani came out of the closed-door Majlis session to reveal what Araqchi had said about “managed access.” Shuhani said, “Managed access will be in a shape where UN inspectors will have the possibility of taking environmental samples from the vicinity of military sites.”
Deputy Behruz Nemati said, “It will not be like the Americans can inspect any place at any time…. Those inspections will be regulated.”
Several reports emphasized that no inspections would go beyond the bounds of the Additional Protocol. Zarif said 124 countries now have signed Additional Protocols with the IAEA.
Deputies said Araqchi had been quite firm that no one would be allowed to interview Iran’s nuclear scientists, as the IAEA has been demanding for years.
The IAEA insists it needs access to paper, people and places—meaning documents about Iran’s nuclear program, the personnel who have been working on it, and the sites where nuclear work has been done. The indication Sunday was that the Islamic Republic has loosened up only with regard to the sites.
Deputy Javad Karimi-Qodusi, one the harshest hardliners in the Majlis, also said Iran has “accepted inspection of military sites,” qualifying that by saying, “These inspections will be seriously managed.” But he did not object to the total reversal, suggesting that the top ranks of the regime had embraced the change before Araqchi briefed the Majlis and the Supreme Leader’s office had made clear to deputies that they had no choice on the matter and could not object.
In the hours since Araqchi spoke, the Iran Times has not seen any public objection to the change.
Araqchi later tried to fog over the change with an unhelpful explanation issued in his name by the Foreign Ministry. In the Majlis, he wrote, he and Zarif repeated their “objection to inspections or visits to any military centers or interviews with our nuclear scientists.”
He then said, “We presented necessary explanations … regarding security measures that countries implementing the Additional Protocol usually take for managed access to non-nuclear sites in order to protect their military, nuclear and industrial information and prevent spying.” In other words, he was confirming that inspectors would be allowed on bases by emphasizing that there were measures that would prevent those inspectors from spying on military activities on those bases.
He also emphasized that the negotiators only operate within the principles and red lines stipulated by the Supreme Leader, telegraphing that Khamenehi has approved what has been done.
Just last Wednesday, in a speech to the graduating class at Iran’s military academy, Khamenehi said, “They [the Big Six] are making new demands in the negotiations. Regarding inspections, we have said that we will not allow foreigners to carry out inspections of any military sites. Permission for such things will absolutely not be granted and the enemies should know that the Iranian people and officials will, by no means, give in to excessive demands and bullying.”
Meanwhile, Deputy Oil Minister Amir-Hossain Zamani-nia said he expected sanctions to be lifted during the month of Azar (November 22-December 21), effectively pushing any benefits of sanctions relief into 2016.