October 10-14
by Warren L. Nelson The hospitalization last month of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi has opened up speculation about who might succeed him if he should die soon or become incapacitated.
The names being bruited about range from household names like former President Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, to three men who have made their names as chairmen of Iran’s very independent Judiciary: Mohammad Yazdi (1989-1999), Mahmud Hashemi-Shahrudi (1999-2009) and Sadeq Larijani (2009-present).
There is no reason to expect Khamenehi to leave office any time soon, however. At the age of 75, he appears in good health. He was hospitalized for prostate surgery last month. The head of the surgical team said the operation lasted less than half an hour and used only local anesthetic.
In the one sign that all might not have gone routinely, Dr. Ali-Reza Marandi, the head of the surgical team, said right after the operation that such surgery normally calls for a hospital stay of three to five days. Khamenehi, however, stayed seven days. But he left the hospital walking under his own power.
If Khamenehi should die or become incapacitated, there is no agreement on who would succeed him. Khamenehi has avoided anointing a successor. There is no clear frontrunner. Most analysts expect a battle-royal among competing interests.
The decision on a successor will be made by the 86-man Assembly of Experts, which is empowered to name a new Supreme Leader by majority vote. The important thing to remember is that all 86 men are senior clerics. Thus, their primary goal is likely to be protecting the role of the clergy in the decades to come.
The Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) have garnered considerable authority under Khamenehi—primarily because Khamenehi has leaned on them as the key supporting wall of the regime and has given them considerable power. There are hints that many in the clergy are not happy with that. That means they may push back if the Pasdaran come forward with their own candidate.
But the Pasdaran may be smart enough to know that—or they may not be able to agree on a candidate. There is a strong possibility that the Pasdaran will simply ask to have veto power over any nominee, and that the Assembly of Experts will agree to that.
But not everyone agrees. “It’s unlikely that the Revolutionary Guards will defer to a group of geriatric clerics regarding their next commander in chief,” Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC, told Reuters.
Mohammad Noorizad, one of the most outspoken political dissidents in Iran, agrees. He told Al-Monitor, “Neither the Assembly of Experts nor the Majlis is independent. The Supreme Leader, the security organiz-ations and the Pasdaran all interfere in the decisions of the Assembly. There is no hope that the Assembly of Experts can choose the future Supreme Leader without the interference of the Pasdaran and the intelligence organizations.”
So far, the Islamic Republic has had only two Supreme Leaders, starting with the regime’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, from 1979 to 1989. He anointed Ayatollah Hossain-Ali Montazeri to be his successor—but only months before Khomeini’s death, the two men had a falling out (Montazeri complaining privately that Khomeini was too brutal) and Khomeini booted Montazeri out of the government.
After Khomeini’s death, Khamenehi was chosen quickly by the Assembly of Experts, disappointing many analysts who anticipated the regime would become deadlocked over a successor and perhaps even dissolve.
Reports said Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, then the speaker of the Majlis, was the key player, nominating Khamenehi and telling the members that Khomeini had described Khamenehi as having the skills needed to be his successor. Rafsanjani also reportedly argued for a quick decision, warning that the regime’s opponents would soon mobilize if the Assembly did not choose a successor swiftly. The Assembly quickly agreed to both of Rafsanjani’s points.
Analysts generally agree that similar fears of political instability will likely push the Assembly of Experts to a swift decision the next time as well.
“The illness of leaders in undemocratic countries is seen as a national security issue,” Mehdi Khalaji, a former senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who is now the CEO of the Idea Center for Arts and Culture, told the Reuters news agency.
One question is the role the moderates around President Rohani will have if Khamenehi leaves the scene while Rohani is still president. Many think they will just be ignored.
Ali Ansari, director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, predicts problems with the succession. “I don’t think it’s going to be smooth, whatever happens,” he said. “There will be a tussle.”
The process for choosing a new Supreme Leader became more complicated in June when the chairman of the Assembly of Experts, 83-year-old Ayatollah Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi-Kani, fell into a coma, leaving the Assembly effectively leaderless.
One possible candidate to succeed Khamenehi is Ayatollah Mahmud Hashemi-Shahrudi, a former Judiciary chairman who is now the acting chairman of the Assembly of Experts. Shahrudi is seen by many as a candidate favored by Khamenehi and to have support from within the Pasdaran.
A cleric in Qom who spoke to Al-Monitor said Shahrudi is someone the security organizations in Iran would accept as Supreme Leader. He was born in Iraq and is a dual Iranian-Iraqi citizen, but is ethnically Persian. He was one of the two founders of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI), a major anti-Saddam group. He speaks fluent Arabic and is believed able to effectively lead the Shias of Iraq as well as of Iran. That vision of him as being able to draw in Iraqi Shias may prove helpful to his candidacy.
But that cleric who spoke to Al-Monitor also believes Shahrudi does not have the necessary charisma and oratory skills to be the Supreme Leader.
Shahrudi is not seen as a hardline ideological figure and may therefore prove acceptable to moderates as well as conservatives.
Another possible candidate is Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Raf-sanjani, the former president who has been prominent in Iranian politics since 1979. But, at 80, Rafsanjani is seen by many as too old for the position. And he has a multitude of detractors among political hardliners.
Most see him as a pragmatist who is dedicated to doing what he sees as best for the state regardless of ideology.
At times, that has made him anathema to Reformists, whose blandishments he resisted years ago. But recent years have seen his credentials burnished on the Reformist side. He has opposed the house arrest of the two Reformist candidates in the 2009 presidential election and he publicly backed Hassan Rohani in the elections last year.
Rafsanjani has also maintained close ties with the Pasdaran. It is the hard-right that currently is most suspicious of him. Also, he is widely viewed as financially corrupt.
A third possible candidate is Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, the current chairman of the Judiciary. Larijani comes from a family of political heavyweights; one brother is the speaker of parliament and another has served in many government positions. The fact that in electing him the Assembly would also be elevating his family might lose him votes.
The most interesting name being bruited about is that of Hassan Khomeini, the leading grandchild of the late leader.
Many expect Rafsanjani will push Hassan as the next supreme leader of Iran. The Qom cleric said, “The seminary in Qom has accepted the religious authority of Hassan Khomeini. He has shown flexibility toward the Pasdaran and therefore it is possible that members of the Pasdaran and the Assembly of Experts would view his candidacy in a positive manner.”
Hassan Khomeini is only 42, by far the youngest of all those being discussed. He is also by far the most liberal, which doesn’t help him.
His election would likely see the supreme leadership in his hands for decades—which is good for those who prize stability, but bad for those who would like to rise to the position themselves.
He is far more popular with the general public than the older, more traditional clerics. He is a soccer fan and has stated in a TV program that he follows the European soccer leagues. He is a relative of former President Mohammad Khatami, did not hide his disgust for President Mahmud Ahmadi-nejad, and, after the start of the Green Movement, maintained his relationship with its leaders, Mir-Hossain Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi.
His closeness with Reformists will likely pose a problem with the Pasdaran.
Noorizad believes that the promotion of Khomeini is not possible because he has not been able to stand on his own on issues that matter. “The political system has not facilitated the growth of independent individuals,” he said. “Throughout the years, Hassan Khomeini has been unable to protest against the hardships inflicted on people and thus has not been able to gain people’s trust.” But that could be said of just about every political figure in Iran.
Other names sometimes bruited about, primarily by conservatives, include Mohammad Yazdi, who was for 10 years had of the Judiciary and now sits on the Council of Guardians, and Ahmad Jannati, who is the secretary of the Council of Guardians, its senior figure, and perhaps the most rightwing figure in the regime. But Yazdi is 83 and Jannati is 87. If either man were chosen, he would be seen as an interim figure largely selected for an inability to pick a figure who would remain in office for a long time.
The Assembly does not have to choose a solitary individual. The Constitution allows it to name a ruling panel of up to five clerics. That option has generally been viewed as a poor one that would likely produce indecision and a meandering course.
Whoever replaces Kha-menehi may not wield as much power as the incumbent. “The clergy are looking for somebody to guarantee the interests of the clergy. The Revolutionary Guards are looking for someone to guarantee the interests of the Revolutionary Guards,” said Khalaji. “Neither of them wants somebody who can come in and control them.”
Under the Constitution, the Assembly of Experts is supposed to oversee the Supreme Leader and even has the authority to replace him. That role, however, was ignored under Khomeini and has been neutered under Khamenehi.
Many think the Assembly membership, largely aged and with little real understanding of government let alone politics, is quite happy with that arrangement, which makes the Assembly a bastion of prestige but not power. But some analysts think the next Supreme Leader might face demands by the Assembly that he face some serious scrutiny by the Assembly.
A far greater concern, however, is how the streets will react when Khamenehi departs.
The disputed presidential elections in 2009 led to mass street protests. The transition of power after Khamenehi’s departure could also provoke unrest. “If this uneasy equilibrium is suddenly changed, you will have unintended uprisings or unintended consequences,” Abbas Milani, the director of the Iranian Studies program at Stanford University, predicted to Reuters.