September 20-2013
Dennis Ross, considered one of the most knowledgeable minds on the Middle East in the United States, says a US retreat from punishing Syria almost guarantees there will eventually be a war with Iran.
Ross, 65, was a senior Middle East policy adviser in the administrations of George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama—but not George W. Bush.
Writing in The Washington Post Monday, Ross predicted that only bad would result if the US backs off from taking military action against Syria for the use of chemical weapons.
Ross wrote: “Should opponents block authorization and should the president then feel he cannot employ military strikes against Syria, this will almost certainly guarantee that there will be no diplomatic outcome to our conflict with Iran over its nuclear weapons.
“I say this for two reasons. First, Iran’s President Rohani, who continues to send signals that he wants to make a deal on the nuclear program, will inevitably be weakened once it becomes clear that the US cannot use force against Syria.
“At that point, paradoxically, the hard-liners in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and around the Supreme Leader will be able to claim that there is only an economic cost to pursuing nuclear weapons but no military danger. Their argument will be: Once Iran has nuclear weapons, it will build its leverage in the region; its deterrent will be enhanced; and, most importantly, the rest of the world will see that sanctions have failed, and that it is time to come to terms with Iran.”
Ross wrote, “Under those circumstances, the sanctions will wither. What will Rohani argue? That the risk is too high? That the economic costs could threaten regime stability? Today, those arguments may have some effect on Ayatollah Ali Khamenehi precisely because there is also the threat that all US options are on the table and the president has said he will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
“Should he [Obama] be blocked from using force against Syria, it will be clear that all options are not on the table and that regardless of what we say, we are prepared to live with an Iran that has nuclear arms,” Ross wrote.
He then turned to the question of what Israel might do.
“Israel, however, is not prepared to accept such an eventuality, and that is the second reason that not authorizing strikes against Syria will likely result in the use of force against Iran. Indeed, Israel will feel that it has no reason to wait, no reason to give diplomacy a chance and no reason to believe that the United States will take care of the problem.
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees Iran with nuclear weapons as an existential threat and, in his eyes, he must not allow there to be a second Holocaust against the Jewish people. As long as he believes that President Obama is determined to deal with the Iranian threat, he can justify deferring to us. That will soon end if opponents get their way on Syria.”
