The report said there was no concern about losing a war with Iran but serious concern about the damage Iran could do in a surprise attack.
“Although US Navy officials are convinced they would prevail in a fight, Iran’s advances have fueled concerns about US vulnerabilities during the opening hours of a conflict in the [Persian] Gulf,” the Post wrote.
The newspaper quoted US Navy officials as saying Iran has invested much time and money in developing the kinds of capabilities that could do major damage if Iran initiated an attack on an unsuspecting US Navy.
Of major concern is the possibility that a US Navy ship could find itself threatened from every point of the compass by Iranian missile boats, airplanes, land-based missiles and submarines, all of which could overwhelm the defenses with which US ships are stocked.
“This is the scenario that is giving people nightmares,” one official told the Post.
The US Navy is basically designed to detect threats from a great distance in one direction with lots of time in which to organize a response. But inside the Persian Gulf the threat could come from every direction and with only seconds to respond.
Many analysts doubt Iran would ever launch such a “Pearl Harbor” attack, assuming that the Iranian leadership understands that would result in total war.
But the concerns about such an attack arise whenever an aircraft carrier is sent through the Strait of Hormuz into the narrow confines of the Persian Gulf.
“It is a dilemma,” one Middle East intelligence officer told the Post. “When the Navy ships are in the strait, they are vulnerable to attack. But if you were to take them away, the Gulf countries would feel more vulnerable. And already they feel very, very vulnerable.”