In testimony to the US Congress, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, paints a picture of an Iranian approach to foreign policy that is almost childish.
In testimony last week to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Burgess said, “Tehran sees competition for influence in Iraq as a zero-sum game—for Tehran to win, the US has to lose.” In the United States, to say someone views reality as a zero-sum game amounts to an insult; it says that person really doesn’t know much about the world.
Burgess also said Iran looks at Iraq not as a potential ally, as many Americans think, but as a potential rival: “Over the long-term, Iran remains concerned a strong Iraq could once again emerge as a regional rival and threat to Iranian influence.”
Burgess didn’t think that Iranian policy in Iraq posed a great threat to the American position. “The Iranians hope to undermine US interests in Iraq,” he said, “but all Iraqi political parties, except for the Sadrists, see the advantage of a close relationship with Washington.”
Burgess said the Pasdaran are trying hard to gain the upper hand in Iraq, in part by posting Pasdar officers to Iran’s diplomatic offices all over Iraq. He identified the current Iranian ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Danifar, as a Pasdar officer.
Most chillingly, Burgess said, “We assess that Tehran approves the rules of engagement that guide the targeting of US forces in Iraq” by Kataib Hezbollah, the main militia force in Iraq supported by Iran.
Burgess said Iran enjoys a generally positive relationship with the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, but “the Iranians’ subversive activity … is an irritant to the relationship.”
Burgess said Iran is planning what to do in the event of a crisis in relations with the United States, but that it doesn’t want a war. “During an external crisis, Iran could attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz temporarily with its navy, threaten the United States and it allies in the region with missiles, and employ terrorist surrogates worldwide. However, we assess Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict or launch a preemptive attack,” he said.
On the topic of greatest interest to Congress—sanctions—Burgess didn’t give members a pat on the back. “International economic sanctions are not stopping Iran’s drive to enrich uranium and operate its heavy water nuclear reactor,” he said.