The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) says Iran is trying to develop all the technology it needs to build a nuclear bomb, but is not now trying to build one.
Marine Lt. Gen. Vincent R. Stewart, who just took over as directror of DIA last month, phrased his annual “Worldwide Threat Assessment” very carefully and some of the nuances might easily be missed.
“We continue to assess Iran’s goal is to develop capabilities that will allow it to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons, should a decision be made to do so,” he said, making it clear that DIA does not believe that Iran is currently trying to build a bomb.
As to the question of whether it can do that, Stewart said, “The regime faces no insurmountable technical barriers to producing a nuclear weapon” The bottom line, he said, is whether the leadership of the regime will decide it wants to go ahead and build a bomb.
The Islamic Republic has repeatedly denied it has any desire to possess a bomb. But since DIA sees Iran gathering all the pieces of the nuclear bomb puzzle, it doesn’t give much credence to those public statements.
The DIA is the Pentagon’s intelligence agency and is devoted primarily to military intelligence. It is one of 17 different intelligence gathering and assessing agencies scattered all across the federal government and collectively called the Intelligence Community (IC).
In an earth-shaking judgment made during the George W. Bush Administration, the IC concluded Iran had been working to build a bomb but suspended that program in 2003, shortly after the United States invaded Iraq. It was widely assumed that Iran feared an American invasion if its bomb program were not closed down.
Stewart’s point was that Iran continues to this day to gather technology and to master the science needed to fabricate a bomb, but all that is in separate and isolated programs without everything coming together.
Stewart didn’t portray the Islamic Republic as a benign power. On the contrary, he waved a red flag, saying, “The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to threaten US strategic interests in the Middle East. Iran’s actions and policies are designed to further its goal of becoming the dominant regional power, as well as enhance its strategic depth.”
Stewart also warned of a major cyber warfare threat from both Iran and North Korea in the here and now. Stewart said, “Iran and North Korea now consider disruptive and destructive cyberspace operations a valid instrument of statecraft, including during what the US considers peacetime. These states likely view cyberspace operations as an effective means of imposing costs on their adversaries while limiting the likelihood of damaging reprisals.”
US officials have blamed North Korea for a large-scale attack last year on Sony Films, which has received massive media coverage, and a similar attack on Sheldon Adelson’s casino enterprise has been attributed to Iran, though it has not received very much media attention. Iran is also blamed for many, but much less sophisticated attacks, on US banking websites, attacks that have been annoying but which did not destroy any records or steal any funds.
Stewart continued: “Tehran views the US as its most capable adversary and has fashioned its military strategy and doctrine accordingly. Iran’s military posture is primarily defensive and is designed to deter an attack, survive an initial attack, and retaliate against its aggressor to force a diplomatic resolution…. We do not anticipate any changes to this posture in 2015.”
Others have suggested that the Pasdaran are organized chiefly as a force that would hunker down and let any US invasion roll over it, then rise up to strike at US military units from the rear. Stewart did not go into the specifics of how he thought Iran would respond to an invasion, however.
He focused on Iran’s missile program, saying, “Iran’s overall defense strategy relies on a substantial inventory of theater ballistic missiles capable of reaching as far as southeastern Europe. Iran continues to develop more sophisticated missiles, and is improving the range and accuracy of its current missile systems.”
Stewart also commented: “Iran publicly stated that it intends to launch a space-launch vehicle as early as this year capable of intercontinental ballistic missile ranges, if configured as such.” Stewart’s report was released last Tuesday, the day after Iran lofted its first satellite in three years. But Iran used its old Safir rocket to do that, and once again failed to use the more modern and larger Simorgh rocket that Stewart was referring to. The Simorgh was unveiled several years ago but has never been fired.
Stewart said, “Iran is also steadily improving its military capabilities. The navy is developing faster, more lethal surface vessels, growing its submarine force, expanding its cruise missile defense capabilities, and increasing its presence in international waters. The navy aspires to travel as far as the Atlantic Ocean.
“Iran is laboring to modernize its air and air defense forces under the weight of international sanctions. Each year, Iran unveils what it claims are state-of-the-art, Iranian-made systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), radars, and unmanned aerial vehicles. It continues to seek an advanced long-range SAM.”
Many analysts say Iran’s military technology claims are generally exaggerated and often outright bogus. But Stewart made no comment on the quality of what Iran unveils every few months, a rather major hole in his report.
Turning to Syria, Stewart said, “Hezbollah and Iran, Damascus’ key allies in its fight against the opposition, continue to provide training, advice, and extensive logistical support to the Syrian government and its supporters. Despite the regime’s military advantage – particularly in firepower and air superiority – it will continue to struggle and be unable to decisively defeat the opposition in 2015.”
On the battle against the Islamic State, which the Intelligence Community refers to as ISIL, Stewart said, “Airstrikes have resulted in the removal of a number of ISIL senior leaders and degraded the group’s ability to operate openly in Iraq and Syria. We expect ISIL to continue entrenching itself and consolidating gains in Sunni areas of Iraq and Syria while also fighting for territory outside those areas.
“However, we also expect ISIL to continue limited offensive operations, such as the group’s recent operations in Syria and in Anbar province of Iraq. Seizing and holding Shia and Kurdish-populated areas of Iraq have been, and will continue to be difficult, for ISIL in 2015. We expect the group will continue to use traditional terrorist tactics such as suicide, car bomb, and assassination attacks. Terrorist attacks in Baghdad have been nearly a daily occurrence this past year and the rate is unlikely to significantly change in 2015.
“ISIL’s ability to govern the areas it has captured in Iraq and Syria, and its ability to keep the support – or at least acquiescence – of the Sunni population will be key indicators of the success or failure of the self-declared ‘Islamic state’,” Stewart said.