March 17, 2023
LOTS OF INTEL – At the center is the seal of the Director of National Intelligence, surrounded by the seals of the 17 intelligence organizations that are scattered across the US government.
The annual “threat assessment” of the US “intelligence community”-all 17 intelligence organizations scattered throughout the US government-again lists Iran, China, Russia and North Korea as the only major state threats to the United States.
The unclassified report, released February 6 and available on the internet, says little new about Iran, but does offer some nuanced observations about Iran.
With regard to the stalled nuclear deal, the report says, “Iran’s hardline officials’ distrust of Washington and doubts that the United States would deliver or sustain any benefits of a renewed JCPOA have stood in the way of finalizing a deal.” This describes an issue the Islamic Republic has never publicly raised as a central concern.
With regard to the ongoing protests, the report says: “Even if Iran has contained this round of protests through violence and intimidation, compounding crises in the coming year probably will further challenge the regime’s legitimacy and staying power. With Iran’s depreciating currency and annual inflation rates of almost 50 percent in late 2022, Tehran probably faces an economic downturn that the IC [Intelligence Community] assesses could prolong or reignite unrest and result in greater instability.”
On Iran’s nuclear program, the report states: “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device…. If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably will consider further enriching uranium up to 90 percent.” This observation effectively dismisses the comments of many people that declare Iran’s possession of lots of highly enriched uranium is threatening.
And, on the issue of Iran’s cyber warfare program, the report states: “Iran’s opportunistic approach to cyber attacks makes critical infrastructure owners in the United States susceptible to being targeted by Tehran, particularly when Tehran believes that it must demonstrate it can push back against the United States in other domains. Recent attacks against Israeli targets show that Iran is more willing than before to target countries with stronger capabilities.”
In other words, the intelligence community is saying the Islamic Republic launches cyber attacks like a high school bully who just wants people to notice him.