March 25, 2022
SURGE – The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 prompted the price of an OPEC barrel to pass $100 for the first time since September 2017 and soar passed $128 in just 10 days. The price has settled down now, but remains above $100 a barrel. Iran, however, is not enjoying much of a benefit. First, it is not exporting even half its usual 2.5 million barrels a day. That is clear because Oil Minister Javad Oji promised March 19 to raise oil AND CONDENSATE exports to 1.4 million barrels a day in the new Persian year. Second, what it does export is sold at a discount—though the regime will not say how much that discount is. Oji said that once sanctions are lifted, it would take Iran only one to two months to raise crude exports back to its standard 2.5 million barrels a day. But the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) says it will take Iran six months to boost crude exports by even 1 million barrels a day. Oji said exports of everything—crude, condensates, natural gas, petroleum products and petrochemicals—in the just ended year of 1400 were 2.5 times greater than in 1399. But he gave no revenue numbers—a hint that Iran’s discounts are severe.
