Diplomats from the seven countries met for 10 hours, including dinner Friday and lunch Saturday. Many topics were mentioned, including winding down Iranian enrichment of uranium, but there were no negotiations Saturday. That was left to the next meeting, May 23 in Baghdad.
Western diplomats said there was a big change in the atmospherics with Iran engaging and appearing open to substantive discussion, in contrast with the last meeting in January 2011, when, diplomats said, Iranian representative Saeed Jalili just gave a propaganda lecture.
Aside from the decision on a date and place for another meeting, the only decision that came out of the meeting was to appoint Iranian and European diplomats to sit down and draft an agenda for the next meeting—Ali Baqeri, Jalili’s deputy, and Helga Schmid, Ashton’s deputy.
A US official summed it all up this way for The Washington Post: “While the atmosphere today was positive and good enough to merit a second round, there is urgency for concrete progress, and the window for diplomatic action is closing.” The closing window was the metaphor adopted a few weeks ago by President Obama and it now dominates American comments aimed at goosing Iran to act swiftly.
Russia stuck solidly with the other members of the Big Six. A European diplomat said that after Jalili thanked Russia for supporting Iran, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov was stunningly sharp: “Russia doesn’t have to be thanked, but you need to do what we need you to do.”
In the public comments after the meeting, it wasn’t clear that the Islamic Republic was united in the direction it wants to take, but it now appeared united behind holding talks when faced with toughened sanctions.
A week before the meeting, Fereydun Abbasi-Davani, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, announced in a television interview that Iran could halt its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent—the Iranian practice that most riles the outside world. (See last week’s Iran Times, page one.)
That comment went unchallenged in the Islamic Republic, suggesting the establishment was agreed on the need at least to consider a concession.
After the Istanbul meeting Saturday, however, the media in Tehran quoted Jalili as saying the Islamic Republic wasn’t even thinking about ending 20 percent enrichment. But Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi said 20 percent enrichment was an issue that could be discussed.
Jalili, 46, came to the meeting with new stature. His letterhead used to identify him as the secretary to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). The letterhead now used in his latest communications with Ashton also identify him as the “personal representative of the Supreme Leader” on the SNSC.
The bulk of the coverage of the Istanbul meeting in the Iranian media focused on an alleged concession by the major powers to recognize that Iran has a right to a peaceful nuclear program. Actually, that was nothing new. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton stated after the meeting that the Big Six all support Iran’s right to a civil nuclear program. That was part of an effort to say things she knew Iran wanted to hear.
In Tehran, politicians and the media glommed onto that remark as if it were the major outcome of the meeting. While that might sound silly to many in the West, the key point was that Iranian politicians were portraying the meeting as a success and justifying further talks. The portrayal of the Big Six as making a major concession to the Islamic Republic could be seen as laying the groundwork for the Islamic Republic to make a major concession to the Big Six.
From right to left, the media spoke of the Big Six finally recognizing Iran’s rights. The consistency suggested that the censors at the Culture Ministry had ordered that line. The hardline Jomhuri Eslami said America had “surrendered” to Iran by recognizing its rights, while the state-owned English daily Iran headlined: “EU Reaffirms Tehran’s Nuclear Rights.”
Even the Pasdaran came out endorsing the talks because of the victory achieved on Iran’s nuclear rights. Deputy Pasdar commander Brig. Gen. Hossain Salami said, “You witnessed that all of them have accepted Iran’s right to access nuclear technology.” He said this means the West has been forced to retreat.
Actually, Ashton didn’t just say the Big Six accepted Iran’s nuclear rights. But the Islamic Republic just brushed over the first part of her sentence. Ashton said: “We have agreed that the Non-Proliferation Treaty forms a key basis for what must be serious engagement to ensure all the obligations under the treaty are met by Iran while fully respecting Iran’s right for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.”
The main sour note sounded in the Iranian media was gloating over the regime’s refusal to meet privately with the US representative, Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.
Ashton told Jalili that all Big Six delegations wanted to have bilateral meetings with the Iranian delegation over the weekend. The Iranian media crowed that the Islamic Republic had showed its might by refusing any such private session with the Americans.
It wasn’t clear why the regime chose to make a big issue of this. In October 2009, at a previous Big Six-Iran session, Jalili had no trouble sitting down privately with the US representative. But this time, such a meeting was a no-no.
News reports from Istanbul told of Iranian meetings with Ashton and with the Chinese and Russian delegations on Friday before the formal session. But there were no Iranian meetings reported with the German, French, British or American delegations. The Iranian media only made an issue out of the refusal to meet the Americans.
There was much chest-thumping in Tehran saying the main goal of the meeting next month in Baghdad will be to end sanctions. But Foreign Minister Salehi avoided chest-thumping rhetoric and instead sounded like a diplomat. In an interview on state television, he said, “They [the Big Six] correctly or incorrectly state that they have some concerns [about Iran’s nuclear program]—the same way that we are demanding our rights. Therefore, we will think about mechanisms to obviate their concerns and at the same time achieve our rights.”
That was a remarkable comment, very unlike the usual remarks made in the media of the Islamic Republic, and suggesting that Salehi was prepared for serious negotiations.
Jalili, on the other hand, took a tougher line in his comments after the meeting, saying that all Iran is seeking is “the rights enshrined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty” and emphasizing Iran’s demand for the removal of sanctions while pointedly opposing any Iranian “give” in exchange for its “takes.” But many analysts thought that was just a Jalili effort to cover himself with the rightwing since he is the man out front on the nuclear issue and the one most subject to condemnation if the regime position smells of weakness.
The key positive comment he made after the talks was his observation that the Big Six had showed “a positive approach toward talks and cooperation,” thus keeping the door open.
Salehi said, “If there is goodwill, one can pass through this process very easily and we are ready to resolve all issues very quickly and simply—even in the Baghdad meeting.” But he also made clear that sanctions are Iran’s real concern right now; it is the pain of sanctions that most believe has prompted the change in Iran’s attitude at the talks.
Salehi said, “If the West wants to take confidence-building measures, it should start in the field of sanctions, because this action can speed up the process of negotiations reaching results.” US officials have made clear, however, that they oppose any diminution of sanctions based on mere Iranian pledges of cooperation. For example, Washington will not eliminate any sanctions if Iran says it will answer all the questions about its nuclear program posed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), though it would probably agree to talk about what sanctions would be dropped once the IAEA said all its questions had been satisfactorily answered.
One possible development on sanctions if the Baghdad talks go well is that Congress will not impose yet additional sanctions. A senator working on a new sanctions bill said he might put a hold on that work if something serious came out of the talks next month.
In Israel, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu gave the Istanbul talks the back of his hand and irritated many in the Obama Administration. Netanyahu said, “My initial impression is that Iran has been given a ‘freebie.’ It has got five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation, any inhibition.”