South African officials have not publicly announced any policy on Iranian oil. But they must have made some promises to American officials to have received a waiver from US sanctions earlier this month. US law says a country must “significantly” reduce its Iranian oil imports to win a waiver.
There is speculation South Africa is looking to completely end Iranian oil imports. For one thing, the waiver is only good for six months. Then it must show some additional “significant” reductions to justify another six-month waiver.
Some refineries are understood to want to end any reliance on Iranian oil quickly, fearing that they will have problems lining up other suppliers if they delay.
In the first half of last year, South Africa bought an average of 98,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day. That was only 4 percent of Iran’s oil exports. But it represented 25 percent of South Africa’s oil imports.
Reuters reported last week that the government there has been in talks with Angola and Nigeria, the two major oil producers in Africa south of the Sahara, as well as with Saudi Arabia. Nelisiwe Magubane, director general of the Energy Department, told reporters, “We intend looking at other countries, specifically in Africa, mainly Angola and Nigeria. We also, of course, are going to continue to import from Saudi Arabia.”
While the government may involve itself, the key decisions will be made by the privately-owned refineries.
South African customs figures show crude imports from Iran were halved in April compared with March.
The Iranian media have avoided writing about the decline in crude sales. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), the state-owned news outlet, last week confined itself to quoting South African President Jacob Zuma as telling Iran’s new ambassador to South Africa, “We are willing to expand our relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” without saying a word about South Africa’s contracting oil purchases.
