September 20-2013
Presidents Obama and Rohani have exchanged letters, although it isn’t clear if there was any substance to the letters or if they were largely formalities.
But letters or not, all the indications are that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi has now stepped back and is no longer objecting to direct talks between the two countries on the nuclear issue.
The media tends to get very excited over reports of exchanges between the United States and Iran, although diplomatic exchanges actually occur fairly frequently, with the Swiss embassy in Tehran, which represents US interests, being the postman.
Most of those messages originate with the State Department and Foreign Ministry. But it is known that Obama has sent at least two letters to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi during his 4 1/2 years in office. Obama has gotten no response to either letter.
Obama ignored President Ahmadi-nejad and tried to deal with Khamenehi, seeing him as the real decision-maker. But after Hassan Rohani replaced Ahmadi-nejad last month, Obama sent a letter to Rohani.
Published sources indicate that it congratulated Rohani on his election and offered direct diplomatic talks. Obama has proposed direct talks since he was a candidate in 2007, so that offer would be nothing new. But a letter repeating that offer would put the ball in Rohani’s hands.
In a television interview taped Friday, Obama confirmed that he had written Rohani and had received a response. But he said nothing about the contents. On Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham confirmed the exchange of letters.
She said Obama had sent a letter congratulating Rohani on his election and Rohani had responded with a thank you “and mentioned some points in his letter.” The “points” were left tantalizingly undefined.
Supreme Leader Khamen-ehi has publicly opposed direct Iran-US talks—with some exceptions—for a long time. But he recently said publicly that he would not veto such talks although he held out no hopes for any success because he does not trust the Americans.
On Tuesday, he loosened up a little more, using a wrestling analogy. He said he is not opposed to “correct diplomatic moves” with countries that are Iran’s adversaries.
He said, “I agree with flexibility because this, in certain circumstances, is positive and necessary. But it needs to rely on one condition—understanding the opposing party’s nature and goal.” That sounded like a lead-in to an attack on the Americans as untrustworthy cheaters.
But instead he used the wrestling analogy and portrayed the United States as a “rival” rather than an enemy. “A wrestler may exercise flexibility for a tactical reason, but he doesn’t forget who is his rival and what his goal is,” Khamenehi said.
That still, however, did not go as far as Rohani, who has said diplomatic talks involve give-and-take and an effort to reach a compromise. Rohani has said that if an agreed compromise can’t be reached, then the parties go home. But Khamenehi has commented in the past as if he believes the Americans will only cheat and lie in any talks.
Meanwhile, Hossein Mou-savian, who once worked under Rohani when Rohani handled the nuclear talks in 2003-05, wrote in an article published Monday that Khamenehi “has issued the permission for the government of Hassan Rohani to enter into direct talks with the US.”
The article was published on the Iranian Diplomacy website, which is run by former Iranian diplomats. Mousavian now lives in the United States and works at Princeton University.
All the signals are that direct Iran-US talks will be held in the near future with the goal of searching for some way out of the impasse over the nuclear issue. Other countries involved in the Big Six talks have urged Iran and the United States to sit down together. The others will likely just rubber stamp anything Iran and the United States come up with.
But the unanswered question is why Khamenehi is mellowing on the issue.
Many think the election outcome is a major factor. Kha-menehi can see that the public has clearly rejected the hardline approach. He may feel he has to change because of public opinion.
It is important to note, however, that Khamenehi has not been staunchly opposed to direct talks. He allowed secret, low-level talks at the UN in the first term of President George W. Bush, though they were little more than academic exchanges. He authorized direct negotiations with the Americans in Berlin to set up the post-Taliban government in Afghanistan—talks that produced a meeting of the minds and remarkable success. And he permitted talks between the Iranian and American ambassadors in Baghdad on Iraq, though those went nowhere.
It is only the extreme rightwing that is firmly opposed to talks and thinks the Americans will pick Iran’s pockets in talks and walk off with the negotiators’ underwear. Khamenehi must keep that group happy and has done so over the years by throwing them scraps and touting their line in speeches. But there is no indication that he shares their extreme view.
Therefore, his acceptance of talks is not really a dramatic change of view on his part. But it does show that he is now willing to risk the far right’s anger—though he is careful to give himself political cover by dismissing face-to-face talks as unlikely to go anywhere.
Of course, everything could fall apart. It is worth noting that The New York Times ran a story almost a year ago on October 20, 2012, that began: “The United States and Iran have agreed in principle for the first time to one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to Obama Administration officials.”
The format for any talks is unknown, but it is unlikely to involve talks between Rohani and Obama next week at the UN, despite media speculation. Neither man is prepared for substantive talks. They might have a hand-shaking meeting to set a positive tone, and they might announce the forum for substantive talks. But those two will not negotiate.
Substantive talks will most likely involve Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who heads the US delegation to the Big Six talks with Iran, and a vice minister of foreign affairs—the rank equivalent to Sherman’s—appointed by Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif to handle nuclear negotiations. The Tehran media talks as if Zarif will handle the talks himself, but the Islamic Republic stands on ceremony and diplomatic practice calls for foreign ministers to negotiate with foreign ministers, not with their deputies, like Sherman.
There was much speculation a few weeks ago when the sultan of Oman and the UN under secretary general for political affairs—who is a former US diplomat—visited Iran that one or the other was carrying a message from Obama. Neither Iran nor the US has said how the letters were exchanged, but it is far more likely that the Swiss postman was used, although many in the media prefer something more dramatic.