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Rial suddenly strengthens

The rial has been improving against the US dollar in recent days, the exact opposite of what usually happens just before Now Ruz.

The dollar sold for 32,350 rials on the open market in Tehran Sunday, the best price since late last November.  (See chart on Page Five.)

The price had generally been below 33,000 for many months until OPEC decided in November not to lower production and let the price of oil plummet.

With that decision, the rial floundered.  Its price against the dollar jumped, although it never reached 36,250 to the dollar, the psychologically important price on June 12, 2013, the day before President Rohani was elected.  The price since then reached 35,970 one day last December, but has not gone higher even one day since Rohani’s election.

The dollar usually becomes more expensive just before Now Ruz, as the demand for it from holiday vacationers exceeds the supply.  That makes the current decline in price surprising.

Some speculated the price reflected optimism that the nuclear talks will lead soon to sanctions relief.

But, whatever the cause, the price is now back in the “normal” range before the OPEC jolt of last November.

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