This is the second sudden, brief and unexplained spike in just four months.
Some sellers were charging more than 13,000 rials for a dollar for a few days while the Central Bank’s posted price was around 10,700.
In June, there was a similar spike. That time, the Central Bank responded by hiking the official price by more than 1,100 rials overnight. But within days, both the open market price and the official price had settled back down. (See chart in the rial box on this page.)
No one explained that very odd spike at the time.
This time, the Central Bank did not take the bait and actually lowered the official price very slightly while the spike dominated the open market.
The question is why there have been these two sudden and major spikes, which are not the norm anywhere in the world in currency markets. Furthermore, Iran never saw such spikes before.
President Ahmadi-nejad said the spike was caused by Iran’s enemies trying to undermine the national economy. That amounted to granting that foreign powers have an immense ability to manipulate Iran, something the regime certainly does not embrace.
Some economists speculated that the rise reflected public fears of inflation and a loss in value of the rial. But that would not explain the sudden return to the same level that prevailed before the spike.
Still others suspected that some speculators in Iran had briefly driven the price up to make a profit for themselves. But if that could be done, the government would be expected to move harshly and swiftly to lock such characters in prison.
Ahmadi-nejad said the US dollar is not really worth the 10,700 rials for which the Central Bank sells it. He said the dollar is only worth 9,000 rials. The dollar last sold for that figure two and a half years ago in April 2008.
