February 17, 2023
by Warren L. Nelson
More and more regime politicians, including hardliners, are speaking out against the Supreme Leader’s non-concessions policy, saying regime policies must be changed to recognize the demands of protesting Iranians.
There is no sign Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi is in any mood, however, for even modest concessions. Khamenehi has said for decades that the Shah’s big error in 1978 was to say he was open to changing policies, which Khamenehi said just made demonstrating Iranians demand even more.
Most calls are for only modest concessions or for only vaguely worded concessions. But former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Musavi, who has been under house arrest for more than a decade, has called for a new Constitution.
Nonetheless, the fact such conservative politicians as Majlis Speaker Mohammed-Baqer Qalibaf are calling for concessions indicates a widespread concern that the regime is in trouble and a widespread belief that Khamenehi doesn’t know what he’s talking about when he opposes any concessions.
But ultra-hardliners mainly the Peydari fraction in the Majlis are going in the opposite direction and demanding an even harsher crackdown on regime critics. Khamenehi has not, however, indicated support for that approach at least not so far.
He had indicated he wants a resumption of enforcement of the dress code. But the ultras are demanding much more. For example, they are pressing legislation in the Majlis that would make any criticism of regime policy a jailable offense—and sometimes an executable offense.
Majlis Deputy Hossain-Ali Haji-Deligani, a Peydari member and also a member of the Presidium that runs the Majlis, has introduced legislation to punish celebrities and other influencers who make “irrelevant and inexpert statements” on the country’s affairs.
“Unrestricted expression of views is not permissible,” he said when announcing the bill’s introduction.
If the Majlis passes the bill, any person of influence could be charged with “corruption on earth” which carries the death penalty for making “untrue” remarks that cause “serious disruption of public order, insecurity, or major physical damage to individuals, public or private property, or promote moral corruption.”
The Fararu website wrote, “This means, in simple terms, that no one is allowed to express any beliefs, views or even analysis before the authorities make an official statement on a subject. Expressing views is criminal if there are rumors going around town about it, even if the rumors are true but different from the official account.”
But other notable hardliners like Qalibaf, Judiciary Chairman Gholam-Hossain Mohseni-Ejai and Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, a Pasdar general, are urging the regime to reject the ultras and take actions to appeal to the protesters.
Qalibaf publicly urged the regime February 1 and 2 to examine its weaknesses, cautioning that Iran’s enemies would exploit its weaknesses if the regime failed to address them.
Mohseni-Ejai separately urged Iranian officials to rectify economic, livelihood and social justice issues and stated that Iran’s adversaries would “seize this weakness,” mirroring Qalibaf.
Vahidi said the regime must engage in constructive dialogue with activists who operate within the ideological framework of the Islamic Republic and stressed the importance of political participation, rather than locking critics out of the system, as proposed by Haji-Deligani. Vahidi previously acknowledged that the Mahsa Amini protest movement had created deep sociopolitical fissures between the regime and Iranian youth.
The anti-regime expatriate news outlet Iran International reported that former Rohani Administration officials discussed limiting Khamenehi’s authority on January 30, citing exclusive access to an audio file of the meeting.
Former President Hassan Rohani’s deputy for logistics and former North Khorasan Province Governor General Mohammad-Reza Salehi allegedly criticized the regime’s response to the protest movement and its economic policies in a meeting with other Rohani governors general and former First Vice President Es’haq Jahangiri.
Iran International said Salehi framed anti-regime sentiments as an urgent threat to the Islamic Republic and stated that structural reforms were the only solution to this threat. Salehi allegedly criticized recent privatization initiatives and the legislative proposal aimed at curtailing freedom of speech and likened sham trials for arrested protesters to “a systemic massacre.”
He also reportedly said former Law Enforcement Forces Chief Brigadier General Hossain Ashtari had offered to issue a televised apology for Mahsa Amini’s death, but was instructed instead to violently suppress unrest, presumably by Khamenehi. Khamenehi dismissed Ashtari as law enforcement commander January 7.
Iran International also asserted that Salehi advocated for convincing Khamenehi to hold a referendum on reducing the Supreme Leader’s powers.
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, previously wrote that Khamenehi’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hejab requirement likely was driving fissures among the political elite.
Recent reporting and comments from Iranian officials indicate the division in the establishment is between ultra-hardliners and pragmatic hardliners, with the ultras calling for even harsher policies and the pragmatists insisting that the regime must make concessions to retain power.
The pragmatists ultimately seek to preserve and strengthen the regime through limited concessions and should not be seen as seeking or supporting any fundamental changes in the nature of the regime. Recent statements and reports suggest a certain degree of urgency with which this faction seeks to bridge societal divides as the regime continues to enforce policies that led to the recent unrest.
In an interview February 1, former President Rohani urged officials to address protester grievances by making changes in political and cultural policies, though he avoided citing any specific policies he thought out to be changed. But his key comment was to say that the fissures between the regime and the people threaten the regime’s legitimacy and very survival. “We must bring the people who have turned away from us back into the fold,” he said.
Former President Moham-mad Khatami issued a statement February 5 that urged major changes. His statement looked like a list of all the faults that offend the public. He called for free elections and free speech, an anti-corruption drive, a general amnesty for protesters and an end to the involvement of the Pasdaran in political, economic and foreign affairs.
Like a number of others including former conservative Deputy Mohammad-Reza-Bahonar and former Deputy Interior Minister Mostafa Tajzadeh Khatami called for amendments to the Constitution. But it was left to former Prime Minister Musavi to say the Constitution should be scrapped and a new one written. He called for a national referendum on establishing a new constitutional convention. Musavi said, “The rulers of the Islamic Republic are not willing to take the smallest step to meet the demands of the people.”
