Last month, Deputy Oil Minister Javad Oji let drop that 30 percent of the country’s gas consumers had failed to pay their latest gas bills, which soared after the reduction in state subsidies.a
He has said nothing more about the boycott. But citizens are certainly talking about it and it appears quite possible hat the boycott has grown far beyond 30 percent.
“Many apartment houses have but one meter for the building. That has prompted some nasty arguments with some apartment dwellers saying they are conserving on gas and won’t pay for those wasting gas.
Many apartment buildings have had meetings to discuss the gas bills—and it appears that many of those discussions have ended with the residents banding together and jointly refusing to pay. The practice of the single meter may have given apartment house residents more courage to boycott the bills.
Some political commentators are speculating that the surging utility bills may prompt poorer residents of the capital to march against the regime. The political protests after the 2009 elections were dominated by the middle and upper classes. The question many are asking now is whether the working class might join the opposition.
If the regime just ignores the boycott, the poor would not appear to have any reason to protest. But if the government ignores the non-payment, then the boycott will soon become nearly universal with no one paying utility bills. This has happened in a few other countries.
That would be economically devastating. Where the government said it could not afford to subsidize 70 percent to 80 percent of the cost of utilities, it would then find itself subsidizing 100 percent. On top of that, it would be making cash welfare payments to citizens to offset the loss of subsidies. In other words, it would find itself subsidizing the cost of utilities to the extent of 120 percent or more, digging itself deeper in the economic hole.
Most of the anecdotal stories of public complaints talk only of higher bills. They do not quote the complainers mentioning the cash payments they have received. A householder is heard saying his bills for previously subsidized goods are up $100 a month; but if he received $120 in cash welfare, his family is not in a hole.
Since there is very little media discussion of the issue, families may not really understand how they are impacted in net terms. And with the government silent since Oji spoke out a month ago, the extent of the boycott today is unknown.