March 20, 2016
by Warren L. Nelson
The Islamic Republic test-fired four more missiles last week, setting off a firestorm around the world with both France and the United States talking about the possibility of imposing new sanctions on Iran.
The new test firings did not violate any UN rules for Iran. The old UN resolution carrying an outright ban on missile tests was replaced in January by a new resolution that urges Iran not to conduct further tests but does not forbid them.
Anger at the tests was enflamed around the world when the Iranian news media reported that the missiles were inscribed in Hebrew with the words, “Israel must be wiped off the map.” The direct threat to Israel fed much criticism of Iran, including from as far away as New Zealand where Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif visited a few days after the tests.
Iran released photos showing two missiles being launched just seconds apart from a valley surrounded by high peaks.
The state also released photos of missiles being prepared for launching from an underground chamber, although no actual launches from the chamber were photographed.
The chamber was not like American or Russian silos, which are barely larger than the missile that sits erect in the silos until fired. Instead, the chamber was a huge room into which a missile is trucked from underground storage, erected and then fired through a small aperture in the ceiling. Video showed long underground tunnels with missiles stocked horizontally along the walls. One missile was seen erected vertically and ready for firing through the small aperture.
Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, said Ban noted that the UN Security Council resolution endorsing the nuclear deal between Iran and the Big Six “called upon Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons,” adding that it was up to the Security Council to decide on the implications of the resolution.
The term “calls upon” is a UN term meaning it is urging a policy but not making such a policy legally binding.
Iran, however, focused on the phrase about the design of the missile and said that since the nuclear agreement keeps Iran from making nuclear weapons its missiles cannot be designed to carry them.
That was described as sophistry by many since it is established international practice to define a missile of the size of the ones tested by Iran to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
Iran touted the tests as intended to demonstrate Iran’s “deterrent power,” though the boasting about wiping Israel off the map poked holes in that claim.
While the Islamic Republic insisted the missiles were only intended to carry conventional explosives, such missiles are largely irrelevant militarily without nuclear warheads. A long-range missile such as Iran tested costs more to make than the value of what it would likely destroy, unless it has a nuclear warhead. Aimed at a building, it would be more likely to hit the parking lot adjacent to the building. With a nuclear warhead, that slight error would mot matter. Without a nuclear warhead, the missile would destroy many cars but break only windows in the targeted building. And even that assumes an accuracy that few believe Iran has yet achieved.
For that reason, many believe the tests last week are evidence that Iran still has a desire and a plan to build nuclear weapons eventually and is seeking to perfect its missiles in the meantime.
But Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari said the missiles were “conventional defensive instruments and they were merely for legitimate defense.” The problem with that argument and its double reference to defense was that Iran said the missiles had a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), thus designed for targets far beyond Iran’s borders and far beyond any force attacking Iran.
The United States asked the UN Security Council to take up the issue this week. No action had been taken by the time the Iran Times went to press.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said, “We condemn the ballistic missiles tests and, if necessary, sanctions will be enacted.”
US Secretary of State John Kerry said, “The missiles are a violation of the UN Security Council resolution because they are longer than the distance allowed for ballistic missiles and, because of that, they represent a potential threat to the countries of the region and beyond. We have made it very clear that the missile concerns remain part of sanctionable activity with respect to Iran. If Iran chooses to violate that, they will invite additional sanctions, as we put them in place just a month ago as a result of the prior tests.”
This was a curious mix, combining a reference to a new UN resolution with sanctions imposed in January for violations of an old resolution. He was speaking before a UN meeting about possible UN sanctions but discussed unilateral US sanctions.
The missiles fired last week were identified by Iran as the Shahab-3 on Tuesday, fired from near Qom, and the Qadr H, fired Wednesday from the eastern Alborz Mountains. The Qadr H was aimed at a target 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) away along Iran’s southeastern Makran coast. Iran fires its missiles so they land inside Iran and do not go into the Indian Ocean where the United States might be able to retrieve pieces and learn something about the missiles. Thus no Iranian missile has been fired to the full claimed range of 2,000 kilometers.
Parts of Israel are just less than 1,000 kilometers from the nearest point in Iran. Brig. Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Pasdaran’s missile forces, said, “The reason we designed our missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers is to be able to hit our enemy the Zionist regime from a safe distance.” In other words, a 1,000-kilometer-range missile could only be fired from a small part of Iran that pokes eastward and would make it easy for Israel to target such a limited area. But Hajizadeh’s comment also undermined Iran’s contention that the purpose of the tests was solely deterrence.
However, Hajizadeh said Iran would not start a war with Isarel. “We will not be the ones who start a war. But we will not be taken by surprise, so we put our facilities somewhere that our enemies cannot destroy them so that we could continue a long war.” But he also said, “Israel is surrounded by Islamic countries and it will not last long in a war. It will collapse even before being hit by these missiles.”
Another missile fired Tuesday was described as a Qiam-1 launched from inside a mountain. State television carried very dramatic footage showing a reporter describing the planned launch while standing in front of a mountain at dawn. A second after the reporter finished, the mountain lit up and a missile surged upward from inside the mountain.
The full range of Iran’s missiles cannot be confirmed. Nor is their accuracy known. Even the size of their warheads is uncertain, though believed to be almost certainly less than 1,000 kilos.
The Islamic Republic makes many claims that cannot be verified; some are, however, beyond belief. Hajizadeh, for example, said some of Iran’s missiles carry 24 warheads. The United States has built a missile with 10 warheads and Russia has one with 12 warheads. But those are huge missiles, much bigger than any of Iran’s and with much larger warheads. If Iran had a missile that could carry 1,000 kilos and divided that into 24 warheads, the result would be individual warheads of less than 42 kilos (92 pounds), to include the housing and guidance systems system as well the explosive, making for a very small bomb.