Most reformists seem to feel the system is so rigged against them that it would be better not to run any candidates at all and just to boycott the Majlis elections next fall.
But others, especially the 40-odd reformists who won seats in the Majlis four years ago, feel differently. Seated deputies want to keep their seats. And others feel that a boycott will just amount to suicide with the reformists totally wiped out off the political scene.
Still others argue that the reformists sitting in the Majlis have done very little publicly to hold up the reformist banner these past four years and to serve as an active loyal opposition and thus add nothing of benefit.
On Saturday, two reformist leaders publicly took opposite positions on the election.
Majlis Deputy Mostafa Kavakebian said flatly that the reformists will not boycott the ballot next March. He told a news conference the reformists would not give conservatives a “green light.”
It remains unclear who all Kavakebian speaks for. It is widely suspected that few reformists outside those holding seats in the Majlis today agree with him.
The same day that Deputy Kavakebian said reformists would not boycott the election, Mohammad Musavi-Khoini, the secretary general of the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics, announced that reformists would not participate in the Majlis elections, underscoring the disagreement.
Musavi-Khoini said, “It is clear that the reformists will not take part in the elections on the reformist platform.” He said the establishment had missed the opportunity to get reformists to join the elections.
He seemed to feel that a boycott would hurt the Islamic establishment, for whom a large turnout is considered very important to demonstrate the legitimacy of the regime. Others, however, see a very competitive election developing between the Ahmadi-nejad faction and two blocks of anti-Ahmadi-nejad conservatives and argue that will draw out lots of voters, including many reformist voters who will want to vote against Ahmadi-nejad.
People who have said they were speaking for Mir-Hossain Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi, who remain under house arrest, assert that both those men oppose running a reformist slate in the Majlis elections.
Former President Moham-mad Khatami has said reformists will not participate in the elections until all political prisoners are freed, the political atmosphere loosened and the elections held with total transparency.