January 22, 2021
In an announcement that is likely to shake up Europeans, the Islamic Republic now says its policy of restricting the range of its missiles to 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles) is not a permanent policy.
Brig. Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Pasdar Aerospace Force, made the statement in passing during an interview January 2. Most of his interview, with the Lebanese TV station Al-Manar, was intended to scare Arab states. He said that in the event of a war with the Americans, the Islamic Republic would make no distinction between a US base and its host country.
It wasn’t clear just what that was supposed to mean, since Iran has threatened to attack US bases in the region for many years—and it did attack two US bases in Iraq with missiles last year. So, it has already shown that it doesn’t respect the sovereignty of its neighbors.
The Islamic Republic has long said (with periodic exceptions) that it would limit its missiles to a range of 2,000 kilometers. That is long enough to hit Israel and the southeastern part of Europe around Greece, but not enough to reach Germany, France or Britain.
Some officers have made some loose talk about extending the range beyond that. So, in an obvious effort to calm Europeans, Pasdar Commander Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari announced on June 19, 2018, that Iran had no plans to build any missile with a range greater than 2,000 kilometers.
Iran has claimed a range for its largest missiles of 2,000 kilometers for two decades.
Jafari said, “We have the scientific ability to increase our missile range, but it is not our current policy since most of our enemies’ strategic targets are within the 2,000-kilometer range. This range is enough to protect the Islamic Republic.”
Jafari’s remarks were likely taken with a grain of salt since Iranian military officers had switched back and forth over the years between saying what Jafari said and asserting that Iran might build longer-range missiles. In the 2-1/2 years since Jafari laid down the range limit, the Iran Times has not seen any officer talk about a missile with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers until Hajizadeh’s comments in January. And Hajizadeh did not say the limit had been removed—only that it was not permanent.
The fact that Iran has been able to put satellites in orbit means it has the technology to build a missile that could reach the United States—far more than 2,000 kilometers from Iran. But it has not done so.
Jafari’s June 2018 comments may have been prompted by a May 23, 2018, report in The New York Times that said the Islamic Republic might be secretly trying to develop a missile capable of reaching the United States.
The newspaper was careful to say the evidence was not conclusive, but then listed several indicators of work on a much larger missile than Iran had produced to date.
The Times contacted five outside experts who independently reviewed the findings and agreed there was compelling evidence Iran was developing long-range missile technology. The Times has not carried any stories since then about any missiles with a range longer than 2,000 kilometers.
The problem before that was that Iran was not consistent in its talk about its missile plans before the June 2018 comments by Jafari.
The previous November, Jafari said the Pasdaran might build missiles with a longer range if Europeans didn’t act nicer.
But three weeks before that, on October 31, 2017, Jafari announced that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi had decreed that the maximum range of any Iranian missile should be no more than 2,000 kilometers.
That appeared to be an effort to avoid irritating the Europeans and Americans with periodic talk by Iranian military officers about building missiles with much greater range.
But on November 23, just three weeks later, Jafari said, “If we have kept the range of our missiles to 2,000 kilometers, it’s not due to lack of technology…. We are following a strategic doctrine. So far, we have felt that Europe is not a threat, so we have not increased the range of our missiles. But if Europe wants to turn into a threat, we will increase the range of our missiles.”
Pointedly, he did not mention the Supreme Leader’s order of just three weeks earlier, suggesting the “order” was actually a propaganda announcement rather than a policy announcement.
But after Jafari’s June 2018 comments, all talk about maybe increasing missile range ce2ased—until this month.
Jafari’s threat to bring Europe within the range of Iranian missiles came after French President Emmanuel Macron called for the world to sit down with Iran to negotiate limits on its missiles. That prompted outrage in Tehran.
In August 2016, then-Defense Minister Hossain Dehqan said there was no limit on the range of Iran’s missiles.
In June 2017, Bloomberg News said a secret Pentagon report assessed that Iran had only 50 Shahab-3 missiles, with a 2,000-kilometer range, in stock. That is a stunningly low number considering the Shahab-3 has been in service since 2003.
A Shahab-3’s maximum payload is assessed at 990 kilograms. By comparison, a single US B-1 bomber can carry a payload of 34,000 kilograms. In other words, two B-1s can carry a third more explosive power than all of Iran’s 50 Shahab-3’s put together. And the B-1s can return to make repeated bombing runs.