March 25, 2022
The Pasdaran say they fired a barrage of missiles March 13 at an Israeli “strategic center of conspiracy” in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.
But the main site that was hit was the palatial home of a wealthy Kurdish oilman, Baz Karim Barzinji, CEO of the Kar Group. Family photos were scattered over rooms where windows were blown out and no evidence of anything Israeli could be seen by the press who toured the building. Barzinji, his wife and two children had been staying at a nearby family farm after Mrs. Barzinji came down with Covid-19 and the family had to isolate.
At least four missiles landed within the Barzinji compound, based on craters that could be seen. Erbil city authorities said at least 100 homes and shops had suffered some damage.
Initially, the attack got major global attention because a Kurdish official said the Iranian missiles were fired at the new US consulate building in Erbil. But the Americans said no missile came anywhere near then consulate.
Other private homes were also damaged, as were the studios of Kurdistan24, a TV station. No missile directly hit the station, but came close enough to blow out windows and knock down ceiling tiles.
If the Kurdish mansion was not being used by the Israelis, it shows a huge flaw either in Iranian intelligence or in Iranian missile guidance.
Hours after the attack, the Pasdaran said the attack was in retaliation for an Israeli strike five days earlier in Damascus that killed two Pasdar colonels, Ehsan Kabalaipur and Morteza Saeednejad.
The New York Times said the attack—if truly aimed at an Israeli target—might have also been in retaliation for an Israeli attack inside Iran that Iran has never announced. The Times said that on February 12 six Israeli quadcopter drones exploded at a Pasdar site in Mahidasht in Kermanshah province that is the main factory where Pasdar drones are manufactured. Israel has accused Iran of 30 drone attacks around the Middle East in the last four years. The Kermanshah attack may have been launched in retaliation for those attacks—and to show Iran that Israel is able to penetrate Iran by air without resorting to missiles.
The Islamic Republic would not likely reveal a drone attack within its borders as that would be admitting that its constant claims that it has total control of its airspace are untrue.
The alleged Kermanshah attack was first reported March 13—the same day as the Erbil attack—by the Lebanese television station Al-Mayadeen, which is supported by the Lebanese Hezbollah.
The missiles, variously numbered at 10 or 12, injured two people, the local government said—a taxi driver who was parked near the palatial mansion, and one of the guards at that mansion.
In the US, opponents of the talks to revive the nuclear deal swiftly called on President Biden to call off the talks because of what they called an attack on the US consulate. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told Fox News, “We do not believe the consulate was the target of the attack.” It was officials of the Kurdish regional government who named the consulate as the target, even though no missiles hit it. The Iranian government also said they had not targeted any American sites, just Israeli ones.
The Kurdish authorities said there were no Israeli sites anywhere near Erbil. Iran was not specific about the location of the Israeli “strategic center of conspiracy” that it said it targeted.
The Pasdar retaliation can only be described as weird.
First, there is no known Israeli target anywhere near where the missiles landed.
Second, Iran has proved it has missiles with pinpoint accuracy. A few years ago, Iran fired a missile at a building in Erbil where the leadership of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran was holding a meeting. The missile not only hit the building, but hit the room where the meeting was underway. None of the missiles fired March 13 hit anything that appeared to be a logical target.
Third, the US consulate building is under construction so no Americans were in or near the building. The barrage was also fired at 1 a.m., when it was least likely to kill or injure anyone.
To some, it appeared the Pasdaran were trying to make a pretense of retaliation by doing something dramatic without actually drawing any blood that might prompt a far more serious US or Israeli attack on Iranian interests. In other words, the attack may have been launched more to impress the Iranian public than to do anything against the Islamic Republic’s foes.
Normally, over the decades, the Islamic Republic has preferred to use proxies, especially Lebanese Shiites, to carry out terror attacks so it could deny involvement. But this time, Iran not only carried out the attack on its own but also made a point of announcing it had conducted the attack. This supported the view that Iran was primarily interested in convincing its own public that it is a tough regime and that it is willing to carry out retaliatory actions.
Several hours after the missile barrage, the Pasdaran announced it had fired a barrage at “the strategic center of conspiracy and evil acts of the Zionists.” But it neglected to say in what country that site was located. The Fars news agency, believed owned by the Pasdaran, then said “scores” of missiles had been fired at two Israeli bases in Erbil, killing “several” Israeli operatives. The Lebanese Al-Mayadeen television station said a Mossad base on Masif Saladin Street in Erbil was “fully razed to the ground and a number of Israeli mercenaries were killed or injured.”
In Baghdad, Kurdish leader Masud Barzani and Shia cleric Muqtada as-Sadr announced they were forming a committee to investigate whether there were any Israeli installations in Erbil. It was clear they did not think there were any when they said the committee would seek to “uncover the truth regarding the pretext of the existence of Israeli sites in Erbil, which has been used as an excuse for the attack.”
An Iraqi official said the missiles were Iran’s domestically made Fateh-110. That is a 20-year-old design, which is rather small with a 60-centimeter (23-inch) diameter and a range of 300 kilometers (190 miles).
There have been at least 30 rocket and drone attacks on sites housing US troops in Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan over the last year, according to data compiled by the Kurdish news outlet Rudaw.
However, the last time the Pasdaran fired a barrage of missiles into Iraq was January 8, 2020. That was in response to the US assassination of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleymani. The missiles were aimed at an Iraqi air base used by the US military. The commander-in-chief of CENTCOM later said the US knew Iran had bought a commercial satellite photo of the base the afternoon before the night attack and the US had moved all its aircraft to different parking places so the Iranian missiles hit nothing of value.
There was a very loud response from many Iraqi politicians, not over the killing of Soleymani, but over the “violation of Iraqi sovereignty” committed by the Americans when they killed him at Baghdad’s airport. This time, there were also complaints that Iran had violated Iraqi sovereignty. The Iranian embassy in Baghdad, which had often cited the US violation of Iraqi sovereignty with Soleymani’s killing, this time said there was no violation of sovereignty because Iran was simply “reacting to the Zionists and the Mossad spy base.”
The Kurdish Regional Government based in Erbil has long had a close working relationship with Israel, going back to the days when Enemy Number One for both was Saddam Hussein. So, while it is quite possible the Israelis have some operatives in Erbil, they are unlikely to host an anti-Iran base given that the Kurds have no desire to irritate the Islamic Republic.