would tolerate the Islamic Republic developing nuclear warfare technology but would go to war to stop Iran from actually building a bomb.
The remarks were the clearest statement yet of the limits of tolerance by the Obama Administration.
It was also a significant shift from what Panetta has been saying in recent months, when he repeatedly said that going to war with Iran would be bad for the United States and would have lots of negatives. Many inside the Administration were furious with Panetta for implying that the United States was unwilling to go to war with Iran.
Interviewed on “Meet The Press” Sunday, Panetta cleaned up his act and—while avoiding the word “war”—made quite clear that the United States was prepared to go to war to stop Iran from ever building a bomb.
Unfortunately, he was never asked how sure he was that the United States would know in sufficient time if Iran were actually planning to build a bomb.
Panetta’s comments were a big step back from what has been policy for years. The United States has demanded that Iran stop enriching uranium. And the United Nations—with support from Russia and China—has also demanded that Iran cease enriching uranium. But many analysts have long said that policy is no longer workable as Iran has long since mastered enrichment.
Panetta just sidestepped the enrichment issue and focused on the bomb issue. He basically told the Islamic Republic that Washington would tolerate what it is doing now—but not a change in policy to actual bomb-making.
“Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon?” he asked rhetorically. “No. But we know they are trying to develop a nuclear capability. And that’s what concerns us. And our red line to Iran is: Do not develop a nuclear weapon. That’s a red line for us.”
He repeated the decade-old mantra about not taking any option off the table, then added, “But the responsible thing to do right now is to keep putting diplomatic and economic pressure on them to force them to do the right thing—and to make sure they do not make the wrong decision to proceed with the development of a nuclear weapon.… I think they need to know that if they take that step, they’re going to get stopped.”
In essence, he was telling Iran to do what Pakistan did for years—master all the technology of making bomb parts, but never actually make a bomb. It isn’t clear that will make the Russians happy, let along others around the world, such as the Israelis. After India carried out a nuclear bomb test, it only took Pakistan weeks to actually make a bomb and test it.
But the core question with any such policy is how the world could be confident that Iran wasn’t quietly bolting together a bomb in a garage.
The advantage of such a policy, if adhered to by the Islamic Republic, is that no crazed faction in Iran could seize a nuclear bomb and fire it atop a missile at someone the faction was mad at.
Panetta also made clear that the United States would use its military forces if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
“We made very clear that the United States will not tolerate the blocking of the Straits of Hormuz,” Panetta said. “That’s another red line for us and that we will respond to them.”
General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, sat beside Panetta and said, “We would take action and reopen the Straits.”
Dempsey sidestepped questions on the difficulty of taking out Iran’s nuclear capability, but said planning was underway for a military option.
“My responsibility is to encourage the right degree of planning, to understand the risks associated with any kind of military option, in some cases to position assets, to provide those options in a timely fashion. And all those activities are going on,” he said.
Dempsey said Iran could close the waterway “for a period of time.”
“We’ve invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that. And so the simple answer is yes, they can block it,” he said.
“We’ve described that as an intolerable act. And it’s not just intolerable for us, it’s intolerable to the world. But we would take action and reopen the Straits.”