Leon Panetta had last Thursday with reporters at a Pentagon news conference.
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Q: Another hot-button issue: Iran. There’s been a lot of chatter about bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. Can you walk us through or comment at least on the complexities and the effectiveness issue of this kind of a campaign? [Previous Defense] Secretary [Robert] Gates and Admiral [Mike] Mullen [former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] both said over the last couple of years that bombing, at best, would set back their program by three years at most. Do you still agree with that assessment? Just walk us through the complexities and the blowback, the unanticipated effects of something like that.
SEC. PANETTA: Well, I certainly share the views of Secretary Gates and General [sic; Admiral] Mullen that they’ve expressed with regards to this in terms of the impact that it would have. I think you’ve got to be careful of unintended consequences here. And those consequences could involve not only not really deterring Iran from what they want to do, but more importantly, it could have a serious impact in the region and it could have a serious impact on US forces in the region. And I think all of those things, you know, need to be carefully considered.
Having said that, look, Israel and the United States share a very common concern with regards to Iran, and that concern was reflected in the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] report that was issued this week. And for that reason it is important for us to make sure we apply the toughest sanctions—economic, diplomatic pressures—on Iran to change their behavior. And we are in discussions with our allies with regards to additional sanctions that ought to be placed on Iran.
And when it comes to [military] action against Iran, I think it was the [Israeli] prime minister, Netanyahu himself, today who said that ought to be a last resort. And we would agree with that.
Q: The two to three years, though — I want to make sure — they’ve said bombing would at most delay that program or derail it up to two or three years at most. Is that still the current assessment?
SEC. PANETTA: I see no change in the assessments.
Q: Can I follow up on this, please? If the sanctions don’t reach positive results, do you think the United States or Israel can live with a nuclear Iran?
SEC. PANETTA: We’ve made very clear that it’s unacceptable for Iran to develop a nuclear capability. We’ve made that point time and time again, and we’ve taken steps and implemented sanctions to make that clear to Iran. Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. They’ve got to abide by that. They’ve got to abide by international standards. They’ve got to abide by international rules.
And obviously, the report from the IAEA just indicates that that is not the case. And for that reason, it is important that the world come together to apply sanctions against Iran and make very clear to them that they are going to pay a heavy price if they continue along this track. As to what happens down the road, you know, I think our hope is that we don’t reach that point and that Iran decides that it should join the international family.
Q: Mr. Secretary, if I could just ask one other thing on Iran, obviously, the National Intelligence Estimates from the US side [in 2007] had said that the weapons program had halted, at least in 2003. The IAEA now says that it’s proceeding apace and that Iran is closer than ever. Do you share that assessment that they are now closer than ever to a nuclear weapon? And since sanctions have not yet worked — economic sanctions, diplomatic sanctions have not yet worked — is it not time to say that strategy has failed and a new strategy needs to be put in place?
SEC. PANETTA: Now, you know, look, first of all, with regards to the IAEA report, that was perfectly in line with the intelligence assessments, certainly that I’ve seen, with regards to Iran. We’ve always made the point that they continue to try to develop a threshold capability with regards to their nuclear capacity. But at the same time, there continue to be divisions within Iran as to whether or not to actually build a bomb itself. So in many ways, the IAEA report pretty much indicates that they continue work on that capability, and that’s pretty much reflected in our intelligence assessment.
But nevertheless, the fact that a respected international organization like IAEA has come to this determination I think raises serious concerns that Iran continues to flaunt international rules and standards. And as a result of that, it’s very clear that additional sanctions have to be applied.