February 18, 2022
Major political figures inside the Islamic Republic, ranging from Reformist to Principleist, have been meeting recently in what appears to be an effort to form a united front countering the strong powers of the hardliners
They haven’t said a word publicly about what they are up to, but they haven’t made any effort to hide their meetings.
Speculation centers on the possibility of their forming a unified anti-hardliner party to run a single slate of candidates in the 2024 Majlis elections and a single challenger in the 2025 presidential elections. The first hurdle they must confront is that the Council of Guardians could simply flick them off the ballot as it did to all substantive opposition candidates in the last Majlis and presidential elections.
The first word of an anti-hardliner coalition emerged with a photograph released of four political clerics praying together. They were: Hojatoleslam Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and an acknowledged Reformist; former President Hassan Rohani (2013-2021) who is viewed as a moderate, but not a Reformist; former President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), the leading light of the Reformist movement; and former Majlis Speaker Ali-Akbar Nateq-Nuri, the establishment candidate for president in 1997 who was beaten by Khatami. Nateq-Nuri has grown increasingly estranged from the conservative camp. The four have said not a word about the purpose of their meetings or the reason the photo was posted in social media.
It later emerged that the four have also been closeted with two prominent conservative lay politicians former Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani, who like Nateq-Nuri, has become increasingly estranged from the right, and Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, long a Majlis deputy who retired two years ago. Bahonar was highly respected as one of a handful of thoughtful and contemplative conservatives, who did not spend his time slinging mud. Bahonar remains a major figure as a member of the Expediency Council appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi.
The Sharq daily said the group also included former Vice President Es’haq Jahangiri, whose base is the party that was formed three decades ago to promote the policies of then President Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani.
The Reformist daily said the group had been meeting regularly in recent weeks to try to form a new bloc to counter the hardliners.
Bahonar has recently been pushing for formation of a Senate to offset what he sees as the local focus of Majlis deputies, many of whom, he says, are inexperienced and not equipped to be legislators. Bahonar has talked of a “second republic,” suggesting that he wants to see an entirely new constitution.
Many people who support the idea of an Islamic Republic feel that the existing one has lost its way and is no longer serving the needs of the Iranian people. That includes many within the Majlis itself, where 66 deputies or almost one-quarter of the membership has called for the legislature to take roll call votes. The Majlis may be unique in the world in that votes are recorded only by the total number of yeas and nays. No one knows how a particular deputy votes.
Others are urging a shift from a presidential system back to a parliamentary system, which existed for the first decade of the Islamic Republic. One concern is that Khamenehi’s successor may not start off with much power and could be challenged by a strong president. Shifting to a parliamentary system would replace the president with a prime minister who would have a weaker position than a president and could be ousted easily by the Majlis.
Larijani recently gave a speech in which he complained that the Islamic Republic was heading in the wrong direction. “The theory of the Islamic revolution was based on rationality and Islamic philosophy, but gradually the Islamic Republic became a populist government,” he said, meaning the regime is trying to appeal to ordinary people with gimmicks, rather than intelligent governance.
He continued: “Governments that are too strict or too negligent lead to corruption and chaos in society. If leaders cannot convince citizens, then they will not trust the government and society will collapse…. It is not foreign invasion that destroys societies. A foreign invasion always takes advantage of flaws within the system.”