September 15, 2023
This chart does not include the most recent monthly export figures. Iran’s oil exports are rising as Iran has been able to sell much more oil to China, but the important figure is not oil exports but oil revenues and that is unknown.
The price of an OPEC barrel has been rising since the start of July, when it was $74, and passed $90 at the start of September.
But the Islamic Republic must sell oil at a steep discount, which many industry sources say is around $30 off the market price. Iran delivers most of its oil to China, but it also delivers oil to Syria which gets it on credit. Furthermore, Iran likely must pay a steep markup to tankers to carry its oil and that markup may just have risen further as the United States for the first time has filed criminal charges this month against a Greek tanker caught with Iranian oil.
When the Islamic Republic has not faced war or sanctions, its monthly oil exports have averaged 2.5 million barrels. A few estimates now put exports above 2.0 million. But most likely its monthly average is still below that.
A lot of news reports suggest that the Biden Administration is not pushing sanctions as hard as in the past in order not to drive Iran up the wall. That is not true at all. The US has seized several shipments of Iranian oil. That infuriates Iran. If Biden did not want to punish Iran too much, the last thing he would do would be to allow such seizures.
But buyers of Iranian oil read China may be balking at Biden’s measures. And Biden is being very careful to balance its actions that impact China, so it might ease up on some oil measures that most irritate China. For now, though, everyone must be very careful not to be too definitive when addressing the key question of how much revenue the Islamic Republic is making from oil sales.
