January 22, 2021
by Warren L. Nelson
The Islamic Republic put on a weeks-long show to mark the first anniversary of the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleymani—but the show ended in a whimper as the regime did not launch any act of reprisal, despite continuing promises.
Immediately after the January 3 anniversary, the commentaries and harsh rhetoric largely disappeared from the media.
The regime appears to be in a continuing debate between those who want to hit the United States hard with a bloody act of retribution and those who fear such an act will likely make life much harder for the Islamic Republic by driving other countries, especially in the EU, even further away from Iran.
For the moment, those opposed to harsh action appear to have won.
From early in December, the regime began a daily worshipful embrace of Soleymani with speeches, ceremonies, oaths of retribution—all long before the January 3 anniversary of his assassination by the United States. The United States took preparatory action in anticipation of some military action by Iran or its militia proxies in Iraq.
A US aircraft carrier and a very heavily armed submarine were sent into the Persian Gulf to much fanfare, unheard of in the past. But after only a few days, they were quietly removed from the Persian Gulf.
Five times, a pair of B-52 bombers were sent from bases in the middle of the United States to the Persian Gulf, where they flew the length of the waterway and then returned home. It was all intended to make Iran think twice about any act of retaliation.
The whole world anticipated that Tehran would launch some dramatic act of retribution, which Iran had been promising for a year. But nothing happened.
Shortly after the killing, the Islamic Republic launched several missiles at bases in Iraq used by the Americans. No one was killed. It was unimpressive—even to officials of the Islamic Republic, who said that was not the sum of retribution Iran would take. But officials kept saying they would not be pushed into acting and would respond to the Americans at a time of Iran’s choosing. That repeated pledge is beginning to wear thin.
The Islamic Republic’s rhetoric, especially over the last month, has set the bar for revenge very high—perhaps too high. More rocket attacks that fall near but miss the US embassy in Baghdad and missiles fired at bases in Iraq that hit nothing of much importance look lame.
On the other hand, the blood lust promoted by Pasdar commanders threatens to cost more Iranian blood than American. Trump repeatedly said he would act violently if any American were killed—and that is why Soleymani was murdered, after an Iraqi-born naturalized American was killed in Iraq during an attack by Iranian-backed militias.
Of course, that may only mean that any act of retribution was postponed for the duration of the Trump Administration. The countdown clock may have been rewound with Biden’s inauguration.
But politically Biden will have to take some action if any American dies at the hands of the Islamic Republic. And the Soleymani killing had the effect of raising the bar—any normal retaliatory act will now look puny after the Soleymani killing and Biden will be under pressure to take more dramatic action.
Many analysts in the US believe Biden cannot ignore an Iranian act of revenge that kills Americans and will have to respond forcefully—not by going to war, but with a very strong act, perhaps sinking some Iranian warships or obliterating the Kharg oil terminal. In Iran, many anticipate the same—but many have long argued that the Islamic Republic can absorb such an attack and burnish its revolutionary credentials at the same time.
Others are understood to argue that revolutionary credentials will not be burnished unless the regime responds violently to any American attack. But escalating tit-for-tat attacks would progressively be more damaging for Iran, especially if they end in war. Furthermore, they would guarantee that sanctions would not be lifted—and might be tightened by the EU rejoining them.
Brig. Gen. Ramazan Sharif, spokesman for the Pasdaran, seemed to lay a foundation for the Islamic Republic permanently postponing any retaliatory action. On the day of the anniversary, he announced that the mere threat of retaliation had forced the Americans to go on wartime footing and exhaust themselves. “While the US is waiting to see Iran avenge the assassination of General Soleymani, it is sick and tired of remaining on standby.”
He seemed oblivious to the fact that United States military forces have been on wartime alert somewhere in the world almost continuously since the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941.
As further indication that many in regime oppose rushing into any act of revenge, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Baqeri, the senior officer in Iran as commander of the Joint Staff of the armed forces, gave a speech saying there is no expiry date on the threat to revenge Soleymani’s assassination.
And Army commander Maj. Gen. Abdul-Rahman Musavi said no American is of such stature as Soleymani to warrant a counter assassination as an act of revenge. He stressed that the appropriate revenge is the expulsion of all US forces from the region, which was declared almost a year ago by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi to be Iran’s goal.
More and more in the weeks since the assassination anniversary, military officers have been talking about expelling the Americans from the Middle East to be the real act of revenge. Biden is expected to reduce US forces in the Middle East (but not bring them all home), which might allow the Islamic Republic to proclaim victory.
On the other hand, Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani, Soleymani’s successor as commander of the Qods Force, said revenge for the assassination might be taken inside the United States. “Some people will be found in your own home to respond to your crime,” Qaani said.
In its latest, albeit limp, action, the Islamic Republic issued warrants for the arrest of 48 Americans, led by Donald Trump, for the Soleymani assassination. It forwarded the warrants to Interpol, requesting that it issue Red Notices, which are notifications to police forces around the world that the named individuals are wanted. But Interpol immediately responded that its rules forbid it from issuing notices of warrants issued for political purposes.
President Rohani, speaking during the pre-anniversary splurge of speeches, said the Americans killed Soleymani as an act of revenge against the Islamic Republic and other regional countries that refuse to bow to the Americans. No one in Iran mentions that Trump had said the US would attack if any American was killed.
As part of the events marking the anniversary, the regime issued what it called Soleymani’s autobiography, “I Feared Nothing.” The anniversary also saw the sale of a board game called Delavar (Brave) with Soleymani’s picture on the box. The game promotes the cult of martyrdom around 57 figures who have died since the Islamic Revolution.