—a solid majority favors more democracy even if this results in countries opposing US policies.
Asked, “If the countries of the Middle East become more democratic,” how would this turn out for United States “over the next few years,” 65 percent say it would be mostly positive, while 31 percent say it would be mostly negative. Asked about “the long run,” an even larger number—76 percent—say democratization would be mostly positive for the US.
A majority of 57 percent say they “would want to see a country become more democratic even if this resulted in the country being more likely to oppose US policies.” This number is up from 48 percent when the polling group asked this question in 2005.
Steven Kull, director of he poll, said, “While some observers are worried about the potential effects of greater democratization for US interests in the Middle East, most Americans are cheering the move toward more democracy, even if this might pose some challenges for the US.”
Americans are not entirely confident, though, that the changes occurring in the Arab world will lead to more democracy. Fifty-one percent say that they think it is likely, but 47 percent are more doubtful. This divides sharply along partisan lines with two out of three Republicans pessimistic, two out of three Democrats optimistic, and independents leaning to the optimistic side.
More see the popular uprisings as mostly “about ordinary people seeking freedom and democracy” (45 percent) than “about Islamist groups seeking political power” (15 percent). Another 37percent see these forces as being equally influential.
A clear majority, though, believes that “it is possible for Islamic countries to be democratic” (56 percent), while 41 percent say that “democracy and Islam are incompatible.” While a large majority of Democrats believe the two are compatible (69 percent) as well as a slight majority of independents (52 percent), among Republicans 51 percent say that democracy and Islam are incompatible.
Similarly, 59 percent overall, and 68 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of independents think it is possible for Muslim and Western cultures to find common ground, while 52 percent of Republicans say violent conflict is inevitable.
These are some of the findings of a new poll conducted by the Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development and the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland and directed by Shibley Telhami and Steven Kull. The poll of 802 Americans was fielded April 1-5 by Knowledge Networks.
