with punitive legislation come Sunday. Sunday came, and the Majlis backed away from its threats, saying there was no punitive legislation in the queue.
It appears that some higher-ups may have decided the Majlis was dangerously close to doing damage to the Islamic Republic instead of the European Union and reined in the provocative members. Others thought the change was only a brief delay because it wouldn’t look good to be whacking other countries while inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency were in the country and the Islamic Republic was trying to paint itself as moderate and cooperative.
The heart of the proposed punitive legislation was a scheme to halt all sales of crude to the EU immediately, not allowing Europe to wean itself off Iranian oil over the next five months, thus having plenty of time to find alternative suppliers and to adjust refineries to handle a different kind of crude.
But some analysts pointed out that an immediate shut off would mean Iran would not have any time to scope out alternative buyers and might see its income drop as it looked around. Also, since it would have to sign up new buyers swiftly, that would put the buyers in the driver’s seat, strengthening their hands in calls for Iran to grant discounts.
The vice chairman of the Majlis Energy Committee, Deputy Nasser Sudani, told reporters Saturday that the committee had finished drafting the bill that would be taken up by the full chamber Sunday.
Sudani said the four-article bill had two main points. The first called for an immediate halt to oil deliveries to Europe with sales not to be resumed until the EU lifted its ban on Iranian oil imports. The other major provision would halt the import of any articles from any of the 27 EU member states, he said.
That raised many eyebrows because Iran imports many articles from Europe that it cannot get from other countries either at comparable quality or comparable price. The Islamic Republic has been encouraging a shift away from European suppliers for many years. The fact that it still buys large quantities of goods from Europe shows its need for European goods. An instant shut off could be far more harmful to Iran than to Europe, whose business with Iran is only a minor part of its economy.
The bill was to be taken up Sunday. The hours rolled by that day without any action. Deputy Mohammad-Karim Abedi, a member of the Majlis National Security Committee, told reporters he had drafted an amendment “to cut Iran’s oil supplies to the Europeans for five to 15 years.”
He didn’t make clear why he would have Iran refuse to sell oil to Europe if Europe dumped its sanctions. But it sounded like he was in a mood for retribution rather than finely tuned policy. “”We will not leave the enemy’s sanctions unanswered,” he said. “We will impose other sanctions on them in addition to halting Iran’s oil supplies to Europe.”
Then later on Sunday, Deputy Emad Hossaini, who is the spokesman for the Energy Committee of which Sudani is the vice chair, told reporters no action would be taken that day. Completely contradicting Sudani, Hossaini said there wasn’t any draft legislation aimed at halting oil sales to the EU.
“No such bill has been drafted and nothing has been submitted to he Majlis,” he said, effectively calling Sudani a liar. “What exists is just a notion by some deputies that is being pursued seriously.”
Deputy Ali Adiani-rad told the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) that a lot of deputies wanted to give the proposed legislation more thought and were concerned to hear what trade experts thought of it. “Lawmakers proposing the bill believe the legislation should be put on the agenda only after strong expert opinion is obtained,” he said.
Asked when that might be, he said no date had been set for a vote.
Ahmad Qalebani, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), had said earlier that he was ready to shut down sales to Europe as soon as he got the order. He said Iran could easily find new customers for the oil that has been going to Europe, but some European refineries would find it difficult to shift to non-Iranian crude.
The drive behind the legislation sounded more like anger and a desire to punch Europe in the snout, not to mention a lot of chest-thumping. As Deputy Moayed Hossaini-Sadr put it, the Majlis wanted Europe “to understand the power of Iran.”
President Ahmadi-nejad, in his first public reaction to Europe’s shutting of the oil valve, proclaimed last Thursday that the EU would be the loser in the oil cutoff, not Iran. “It is the West that needs Iran and the Iranian people will not lose from the [EU] sanctions,” he said. “There was a time when 90 percent of our trade was with the Europeans. It has now dropped to 10 percent. We didn’t call for this. Cut it [trade] and let us see who will incur the loss.”
In the years since the revolution, Iran’s trade with Europe was never as high as 90 percent and it is not as low as 10 percent now, with the EU taking 18 percent of Iran’s crude currently.