July 19, 2019
American sanctions on Iran plus Israel’s military attacks on Iran in Syria are substantially limiting Tehran’s ability to establish a presence in Syria, says the head of Israeli Military Intelligence.
Speaking at the Israel Defense and Homeland Security Expo in Tel Aviv, Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman said that, in essence, Iran’s entrenchment in Syria has been frustrated, if not completely halted.
“Iran is looking for other places to base itself, for instance, the Iraqi arena,” he said.
He said American pressure on Lebanon to disengage from Hezbollah is also hurting that organization, and this pressure is what led Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to threaten Israel with precision missiles. Hezbollah probably does not actually have the large volume of precision missiles that it claims to have, Hayman added. In fact, he said some of the weapons Nasrallah threatened to use against Israel are not even operational yet.
Hayman said that since the civil war in Syria, Hezbollah has effectively become part of the Syrian army.
Hayman said Moscow’s presence in the Middle East makes it relevant as Israel seeks solutions to end the clashes between Israel and Syria.
“Russia dominates by friction, disruption and involvement,” Hayman said, adding that Moscow has been significantly helping Syria rebuild its army following the civil war. The recovery is happening faster than had been expected, he said. Russia has become a dominant factor in Israel’s freedom of operations, and, according to the army’s understanding of the situation, Russia is not leaving the region any time soon.
On the Palestinian front, Hayman said the last round of fighting has led Hamas to try to avoid a war and instead reach an arrangement with Israel.
Based on the intelligence assessments Hayman presented, Hamas efforts to impose its control of Gaza has caused tensions with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which is almost completely funded by Iran, and other organizations that oppose a deal with Israel. The potential for a Hamas blowup with PIJ is high, he said.
While Hamas increasingly sees itself as a government that must administer Gaza, PIJ is a “wild card … that fundamentally still views itself as a resistance group that must act aggressively.”
Hayman also said that even if Iran dumps the nuclear deal completely, it may still fail to obtain nuclear weapons. But he did not explain why he concluded that.
