May 26, 2018
by Warren L. Nelson
Israel has started bombing Iranian sites in Syria almost weekly, apparently in an effort to deter Iran from making attacks on Israel itself.
Throughout the world, much published commentary predicts an imminent direct war between the two countries.
But most specialists laugh at such talk. First, they point out that the two countries are a thousand kilometers apart so a ground war is not a serious option. Second, they note that while Iran stamped its feet loudly after the first Israeli attack, Iran has remained silent after the succeeding attacks, pretending they never happened. Iran says the numerous succeeding attacks are on Syrian bases, ignoring the fact that many of the targets at those bases were Iranian.
It isn’t entirely clear why Israel is so concerned about the Iranian presence in Syria. Iran has about 2,000 Pasdar officers commanding about 70,000 Afghan, Pakistani and Arab troops that have been fighting for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Assad family has faithfully adhered for 45 years to a ceasefire with Israel and there are no indications Bashar Assad would allow the Iranian-commanded ground forces to attack Israel.
Iran’s silence in the face of the recent attacks suggests Iran has no interest either. It knows such an attack would be met forcefully by Israel and that 70,000 troops are not sufficient to conquer. It also knows it would risk a nuclear attack by Israel.
Israel’s main concern, however, may not be a ground attack but a repeat of the drone attack mounted in February, with its implied threat to Israeli civilians.
The low-grade conflict began February 10 when Iran sent a drone into Israel. Israel said the drone was armed but was tracked from the moment it was launched from central Syria. Israel released video showing it shooting down the drone just a few moments after it crossed the border into Israel.
Israel responded with a very modest attack. Israeli planes flew to the base in Syria from which the drone was launched and fired a single missile that destroyed the single truck that launched and guided the drone into Israel. One truck for one armed missile was an exceedingly mild response for a country that is famed for disproportionate military responses.
On May 10, Israel said it watched as Iran set up a truck just opposite the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that has been occupied by Israel since 1967, and fired small missiles into the Golan. On May 22, Israeli Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said Iran launched 32 short-range missiles. He said Israeli defenses shot down four of them and the rest all fell short and landed in Syria.
An Israeli military spokesman said the strike was planned by Qods Force commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleymani. It was generally assumed the rocket attack was intended to be retaliation for the deaths of seven Pasdaran in an earlier Israeli attack rather than an attempt to escalate the confrontation with Israel. But Israel didn’t take it that way.
In response, Israel struck 50 mainly Iranian targets in Syria in an operation Norkin called “House of Cards.” Israeli analysts said it was the largest Israeli action over Syria since the 1973 war.
Syria, not Iran, fired over 100 anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli jets, without hitting any, Norkin said. Then Israel sent more planes and destroyed a number of the Syrian anti-aircraft batteries.
Israel has been “managing a campaign against Iranian forces, especially on Israel’s northern border” for the past two years, Norkin said, the first time any Israeli officer claimed such a long-term confrontation. He may have been exaggerating.
Last year, an Israeli officer said Israel had attacked targets inside Syria more than 100 times in the previous six years to block Iranian arms supplies to Hezbollah. Most of those attacks were never publicized at the time. Those that became known were not against Iran, but against Hezbollah. Israel did not attack the Iranian cargo planes flying arms to Damascus. The known attacks were on convoys carrying the arms to Lebanon and on warehouses in Syria storing the arms. Israel was clearly avoiding Iran—until this year.
Norkin, speaking to a military conference, said Israel had been preparing for a direct attack from the Qods Force since mid-April in response to the drone incident.
“We have been watching what the Iranians were doing around us,” Norkin said. “The Qods Force is set up at the T4 [Syrian military] base, which is some 250 kilometers from Israel. From this base they tried to attack using an armed drone that infiltrated Israel several months ago from our eastern border. After that incident, we determined that they were continuing to store weapons at the base, including aerial defense capabilities that we attacked over the past month.”
He said Israel had received extensive intelligence several days later that the Qods Force was planning a missile attack on Israel, so Israel carried out an air strike on a base at Kisweh outside Damascus to thwart the attack.
“In recent weeks, we realized Iran had sent missiles and long-range rockets to Syria, including [BM-27] Uragan launchers that we attacked north of Damascus,” Norkin said.
It is believed that due to that strike Iran carried out their backup plan, the launching of 32 Fajr-5 and Grad missiles aimed at the Golan Heights.
The night before the missile salvo, the Israeli military instructed local governments to open bomb shelters to residents of the Golan Heights following the identification of “abnormal movements of Iranian forces in Syria.”
Norkin said the Israeli Air Force used some of its newly-acquired American-built F-35 Lightning II fighter jets—the first time F-35s, the most advanced fighter jet in the skies today, had been used in combat by an country.
The latest Israeli attacks were apparently made May 19 near Hama and May 20 near Damascus. Residents reported loud explosions on those nights. The targets were believed to be Iranian ammunition depots. Israel did not acknowledge either raid.
The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks military actions and deaths in the fighting in Syria, has said more than two dozen Iranians have been killed in the Israeli air raids. Iran acknowledged the first seven deaths, but has denied any deaths since then, calling the stories out of Syria “fabricated.”
Hezbollah has not fired missiles into Israel this year to show support for Iran. After the truckload of small missiles was fired into the Golan Heights, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mentioned that attack, saying it showed Syria’s allies were ready to defend Syria. Pointedly, he did not say who fired those missiles.
Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, an Iran specialist at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, believes Tehran does not want any major confrontation with Israel.
“Iran is in a complex diplomatic initiative with Europe trying to salvage the nuclear deal,” he said. “Tehran is well aware that a confrontation with Israel doesn’t help in that direction.”