June 17, 2022
In its most detailed explanation of its air campaign against Iran in Syria, an Israeli general has told The Wall Street Journal the Israeli Air force has attacked 400 Iranian targets in the last five years or an average of more than six every month.
In the past, Israel has acknowledged that an air campaign was underway but has said little about it until now. Israeli leaders refer to the campaign as the “war between the wars,” which they say is aimed at deterring Iran and weakening Tehran’s ability to hit Israel in the event of an open war between the two regional adversaries.
“It’s not 100 percent success,” said Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, who retired early in April after years as head of Israel’s air force, where he served as architect of the campaign.
Among the targets hit by Israel: Russian-supplied air-defense systems, drone bases operated by Iranian military advisers, and precision-guided missile systems bound for Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
The strikes have killed more than 300 people, including Iranian military commanders, Syrian soldiers, militants backed by Tehran and at least three civilians, according to open-source reporting by Stephane Cohen of NorthStar Security Analysis, an Israeli-based consulting firm.
The Israeli campaign started with a narrow focus in Syria on Iranian arms shipments bound for Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. Over time, it expanded to target Iran-backed fighters in Syria and then began directly striking Iranian military positions in Syria.
The campaign has resulted in Iran’s forces largely retreating from positions near the Israeli border to safer spots in eastern Syria, said Carmit Valensi, a research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. “It is an effective strategy, but insufficient to deal with Iran’s full-fledged entrenchment and the threats it possesses,” she said.
In a series of interviews with The Wall Street Journal, Gen. Norkin and other Israeli military officials offered the most far-reaching detail to date of their strategy against Iran.
A map displayed by Norkin showed the five years of strikes reaching to every corner of Syria, but with a central focus around Damascus and near Syria’s border with Israel. In all, the Israeli military said, it had carried out more than 400 airstrikes with most hitting targets in Syria. Israel says it has also hit a smaller number of targets in Lebanon and Iraq.
“When I got this position, I never dreamed that we would act like this,” Gen. Norkin said.
Israel has an understanding with Moscow that Russia won’t interfere with Israel’s airstrikes in Syria, something that has been obvious for years as Russia airplanes disappear from the area Israelis attack hours before the attack.
Retired Gen. Assaf Orion, who once oversaw planning for the Israeli military, told The Wall Street Journal Israel’s campaign had set back Iran’s ability to retaliate against Israel. But the strategy has created other risks for Israel.
“With several exchanges of blows between Israel and Iran becoming direct and open—at sea, drone and missile attacks—the risk for escalation also grows,” he said.
Last year, the Israeli military said, Iran launched drones from its own military bases bearing small arms bound for Palestinian fighters in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, eschewing its usual strategy of having proxies in neighboring countries target Israel. Israel kept the details secret for 14 months, a sign of how sensitive the shadow war is for regional leaders.
Israel has also used small quadcopter drones to carry out at least one strike inside Iran, according to people familiar with the covert campaign.
The evolving war extends to the sea, where clandestine Israeli teams have attacked ships carrying Iranian oil, triggering similar attacks from Iran targeting a variety of ships in the Gulf of Oman.