nuclear weapons, and hardly any of them fear a foreign attack, according to a poll carried out by the US-based Charney Research.
Domestically, an overwhelming majority complain of stagnant or falling incomes—a bad sign for President Ahmadi-nejad, whose main promise has always been to spread the country’s oil wealth.
And despite claims by American conservatives that Iranians love America, the poll found that nine-tenths of Iranians proclaim hostility for the United States.
The poll found that 71 percent of Iranians want the country to have atomic weapons, a number that stood at only 52 percent when surveyed in 2007.
Iranians reject proposed international deals to restrict the production of enriched uranium, but at the same time they are anxious about the international sanctions and dislike growing isolation.
The poll results were released last Wednesday at the International Peace Institute, which sponsored the poll, by Craig Charney, president of Charney Research.
The poll found that, by a massive three-to-one majority, Iranians want closer ties to the West, not reduced links. They also support Western criticism of Iranian human rights violations and aid to Iranian nongovernmental organizations
Despite their desire for closer ties, however, as tensions have risen on the nuclear issue, Iranians have felt spurned by the West. Almost nine-tenths are now hostile to America—a 40-point increase on 2008—while 55 percent are unfavorable to Europeans.
“Iranians want closer ties to the West and their nuclear program, too. They haven’t understood yet that they can’t have both,” says Charney.
The leaders of Iran’s opposition Green Movement are favored by roughly one-third of Iranians, the poll found, similar to their results in the 2009 Iranian presidential election. Although there were widespread charges of fraud, all the post-election polls show that around 60 percent of the people who were interviewed say that they voted for Ahmadi-nejad in 2009, close to the official and much-disputed figures.
Majorities of Iranians supported the post-election crackdown on the opposition and continue to support the theological foundations of their regime, the poll found. However, half are critical of the Ahmadi-nejad government’s performance and expect further democratization of their government in the next decade.
Support for nuclear arms has risen almost 20 points in the past 18 months, as the international confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program has deepened. Nuclear weapons are favored by both pro- and anti-government Iranians, Charney reported.
The Iranian public also opposes two proposed international agreements to halt or slow Iran’s nuclear program. The so-called “Grand Bargain”—Western security guarantees and trade normalization in return for an end to uranium enrichment, nuclear inspections, and concessions on Afghanistan, Iraq, and Palestine by Iran—is opposed by 55 percent to 27 percent. The recent Turkish-Brazilian deal, intended to slow the program and offer more time for talks by shipping half of Iran’s enriched uranium abroad, was opposed by 39 percent to 34 percent, with one in four Iranians unsure. The Turkish-Brazilian deal is heavily promoted by the Ahmadi-nejad Administration.
Iranians are divided on the impact of economic sanctions imposed in response to the nuclear program, with roughly half thinking they have had an impact. Far fewer—just one in six—think there is any likelihood America or Israel will attack their nuclear facilities.
“Support for a deal is stronger among Iranians who think sanctions are hurting or that there is a chance of a US or Israeli attack,” said Charney. “But not enough believe that to produce a majority for either deal.”
However, Iranians are concerned about the pressures on their country due to its nuclear program: 53 percent cite sanctions, isolation, or Iran’s image as its chief foreign-policy problem. The economy worries them too: three-fourths complain of shrinking or stagnant incomes.
While Iran’s leaders are widely believed to be seeking regional hegemony, its public would prefer to focus on domestic needs by a margin of two-to-one.
Moreover, while three-fifths support aid to the Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah Islamic resistance movements, three-fifths would also accept a two-state agreement between Israelis and Palestinians—in clear opposition to the government’s oft-repeated chant that Israel must be “wiped off the map.”
The poll was conducted in early September by telephone in Farsi, from a phone bank in Istanbul. (More than 85 percent of Iranians have telephones.) The margin of sampling error was put at 3.7 percent.