October 10-14
Iranians have dramatically Increased the number of US immigrant visas they win in the annual visa lotteries held since the 2009 post-election disorders. The volume is up 10-fold over the last decade.
Of all the people worldwide issued visas from the lottery held in the fall of 2012, 7 percent were Iranians. A decade earlier the number wasn’t even close to 1 percent.
The huge jump is generally attributed to a growing feeling among many young people in Iran that they have no future in the country and would be better off leaving. That attitude has been reflected in a number surveys, some of which show more than 40 percent of young Iranians saying they wish to emigrate,
The Iran Times last week published the numbers of Iranians who have applied in the visa lottery and who have been declared winners. Those show applicants and “winners” having roughly quadrupled over the last decade, with the real surge starting after the 2009 disorders.
But the chart published here shows the actual proportion of those getting immigration visas jumping 10 times in the last decade, again with a surge after the 2009 disorders.
There is a difference between lottery “winners” and those actually issued visas. Many people who win the lottery and are told they can get a US immigration visa change their mind and decide to stay where they are. In fact, the US State Department picks roughly twice as many “winners” as there are visas to issue each year precisely for that reason.
Thus, the big jump in Iranians receiving immigrant visas reflects not just the rising numbers of applicants but also a surging proportion who do not change their minds and remain eager to leave Iran.
The State Department can only issue 50,000 immigrant visas each year to lottery winners. So winners who apply late in the year may find all the visas gone. That puts a premium on winners applying for the visa early.
The chart above ends in 2012. There are no figures available yet for 2013 because the people who entered the lottery in 2013 and were declared winners only began to go to US consulates to get immigrant visas starting on October 1.
The visa lottery for this year opened October 1 and the window for applicants will remain open through noon, Nov. 3.
