May 26, 2018
The Islamic Republic has decided not to respond immediately to President Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal, but to talk first to the Europeans and see what they are willing to do to try to keep the Islamic Republic happy.
The days before Trump announced his decision were filled with harsh rhetoric from Tehran, with pledges to immediately resume enrichment to levels beyond that needed for power plant fuel and vague threats to punish Trump painfully for withdrawing.
After Trump spoke, much of the rhetoric continued. But the Rohani Administration adopted the mildest—and most rational—policy by saying it would do nothing until it had talked with the French, British and Germans to see what actions they would be willing to take to keep Iran abiding by the deal.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi publicly endorsed the Rohani policy—but he added a ton of negative rhetoric slanging the Europeans as untrustworthy. Khamenehi was clearly trying to have it both ways. On the one hand, he was authorizing Rohani to try his approach. On the other hand, he was tossing lots of raw meat to hardliners by talking about the European governments in ways that made Donald Trump appear diplomatic by contrast.
Eventually, Khamenehi responded to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 12 demands of Iran by issuing his own five demands two days later. (See story on Page15.)
In a nationally televised speech shortly after Trump spoke in Washington, Rohani said, “From this moment, the nuclear deal is between Iran and five countries [Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China]. We must wait to see what these five great countries will do.”
Should those five not satisfy Iran, he said, “I have instructed the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to make preparations so that, if necessary, we can resume enrichment on an industrial scale without limit.” The term “without limit” hinted that he would be willing to enrich uranium to 90 percent, the level used in weapons. Under the nuclear deal, Iran is limited 3.67 percent enrichment, suitable for use in power plants.
Few believe Iran would truly enrich to the 90 percent level, as that would likely prompt military action of the United States. But many spoke of enriching to 20 percent, the level required for fuel in the Tehran research reactor. Others spoke of enriching to a level needed to fuel nuclear submarines, around 40 percent. Iran has said it wants to build nuclear-powered subs.
But Iran isn’t building any nuclear subs and Russia holds a contract to fuel the nuclear power plants it builds for Iran. So Iran really doesn’t need much in the way of enriched uranium.
Rohani said, “We will wait several weeks before applying this decision.” He avoided giving any precise deadline for European action.
On May 13, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the EU had 60 days in which to provide guarantees to Iran. On May 24, another official said the deadline was May 30.
Rohani said the Americans were isolated as “the only regime that supported the position of Trump is the illegitimate Zionist regime.” That was false. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain all swiftly announced their support for Trump’s new policy—and thus their hostility for the Islamic Republic. Poland later broke ranks with its EU brothers and supported Trump publicly.
The day after Rohani spoke. Khamenehi gave a televised speech in which he endorsed Rohani’s policy—but with no enthusiasm whatsoever.
“We hear that you want to continue the nuclear deal with the three European countries. I don’t have confidence in these three countries,” Khamenehi said. “Their words have no value. Today they say one thing and tomorrow another. They have no shame,” he said. Actually, Europe has been quite consistent in supporting the nuclear agreement and, except for Poland, opposing Trump’s reversal of the Obama Administration policy on the deal. At one point, Khamenehi said the Europeans are “utterly immoral in the world of diplomacy.”
At another point, Kha-menehi screamed at Trump, “You cannot do a damned thing!” This is a popular line that Ayatollah Khomeini used against the United States in the 1980s.
The Supreme Leader twice said Trump not only hates the government of the Islamic Republic but also hates the people of Iran. “This person threatened the Iranian people,” he said, although Trump did not do that.
Khamenehi said to Rohani, “If you don’t succeed in obtaining a definitive guarantee—and I really doubt that you can—at that moment, we will not be able to continue like this.” But he pointedly did not say what Iran would then do, leaving the state with total flexibility.
Foreign Minister Moham-mad-Javad Zarif outlined the new policy in a brief tweet: “In response to the US persistent violations & unlawful withdrawal from the nuclear deal, as instructed by President Rohani, I’ll spearhead a diplomatic effort to examine whether remaining JCPOA participants can ensure its full benefits for Iran. Outcome will determine our response.”
Iranian state broadcasting did not broadcast Trump’s speech live. Last year, it broadcast a speech by Trump on Iran and faced vocal criticism when its Farsi translator modified much of what Trump said about Iran. It later broadcast excerpts of Trump’s latest speech, but not the full text.
The print media divided along the usual lines. Reformist dailies supported Rohani’s measured response. The hardline media, however, seethed. “Trump has torn up the nuclear deal; it is time for us to burn it,” said the hardline daily Kayhan.
Another hardline daily, Javan, said, “Our slogan of ‘Death to America’ is not just a slogan. The United States is effectively dead in our eyes.”
Farheekhtegan, a conservative but not hardline daily, was more analytical. “Europe does not have the capacity to maintain the nuclear deal,” it said. “The result of all their bargaining with Trump has just been more pressure on Iran.”
The most dramatic response came in the Majlis, where a group of deputies stormed the dais and a mullah set fire to a paper copy of the US flag. He dropped it to the floor where deputies all swiftly stomped out the flames before it set the chamber alight. A few deputies objected to the flag-burning. Both Ali Motahari and Fatemeh Saeedi said flags represent a people and not just a state, and that burning the US flag was disrespectful of the American people.
Deputies joined in a chant of “Marg bar Amrika” (Death to America), though many were smiling and jovial and seemed more motivated by the desire to have a good time than by anger.
Despite the show of hostility, the Majlis took up a modest resolution endorsing the effort to approach Europe seeking “necessary guarantees,” which were not defined. If the guarantees are not provided, then Iran should resume higher-level uranium enrichment, the resolution stated.
The chief of the Army, Maj. Gen. Abdol-Rahim Musavi, said, “The biggest damage caused by the Iran deal was legitimizing America by sitting at the negotiating table with it.” This was a criticism many conservatives in the United States leveled at Obama when he said he was willing to talk with Iran.
The commander of the Pasdaran, Maj. Gen. Moham-mad-Ali Jafari, said the approach to Europe would not work. “It is clear that the Europeans cannot make an independent decision. They are tied to America. The fate of the Iran deal is clear,” Jafari said.
