August 06, 2021
The Islamic Republic has opened an oil export terminal at Jask, the first such Iranian terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz, which it says will allow Iran to keep exporting oil even if transit through the strait is interrupted in a war.
However, the sole regime ever to threaten to close the strait is the Islamic Republic itself. So, the opening of a Jask terminal suggested to some that the regime is now seriously contemplating a closure of the strait.
The government formally inaugurated the new export terminal July 22, and finished loading the first tanker July 24. It said the new terminal on the Gulf of Oman currently has the capacity to export 300,000 barrels a day, which will rise to 1 million when construction work is completed.
Almost all of Iran’s crude exports currently leave from Kharg Island in the north of the Persian Gulf. Kharg was designed before the revolution with an export capacity in excess of 6 million barrels a day, though Iran has not exceeded exports of 2.8 million since the revolution. That total includes exports of small quantities of a few hundred thousand barrels a day from Sirri Island and Lavan Island in the south of the Persian Gulf.
For decades, the Islamic Republic has periodically threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if Iran were not allowed to export oil through it. But no one in the West has ever threatened to close the strait since that would not only stop Iranian exports but also exports by the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. And few have taken Iran’s threat to close the strait seriously either. Iran is the only Persian Gulf oil producer to export all its crude through the strait, so it would suffer far more damage than others if the strait were closed.
US Navy officers have long said Iran is capable of closing the strait—but not of keeping it closed for long.
Iran said the cost of building the export terminal at Jask and a new pipeline from near Kharg to Jask has cost $2 billion, an immense sum to gain a capability to export almost three times as much oil as it has ever exported since the evolution.
Iran justified the new terminal by saying it would save oil tankers five days’ sailing time and about $300,000 per trip. But that’s a saving for the oil shippers, not for Iran.
In inaugurating the new terminal, President Rohani said, “This is a strategic move and an important step for Iran. It will secure the continuation of our oil exports. This new export terminal shows the failure of Washington’s sanctions on Iran.” It didn’t explain how it foiled sanctions, but the Islamic Republic likes to claim that almost anything it does foils sanctions.
If Iran were indeed to block the Strait of Hormuz, that would start a war and it would be unlikely that the United States would leave the export terminal at Jask operational for more than a few hours.
