May 26, 2018
The Islamic Republic may be secretly trying to develop a missile capable of reaching the United States, The New York Times reported May 23.
The newspaper was careful to say the evidence was not conclusive, but then listed several indicators of work on a much larger missile than Iran has produced to date.
The regime has long said that the longest range of its missiles is 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), long enough to reach Israel, but not Western Europe or North America. It has said it does not need any greater range and is not working on any greater range.
But the Times said a group of researchers in California has stumbled on evidence that Iran is not telling the truth. If Iran were, in fact, working on a missile able to strike Western Europe and North America, it would worsen relations with the EU and US.
The Times said the researchers picked through satellite photos of a facility in Semnan province long thought to have been abandoned. They said they found work on the site that appears to focus on much bigger rocket engines than Iran now possesses, with work often conducted under cover of night.
It is possible that the facility is developing only medium-range missiles, which Iran already possesses, or perhaps an unusually sophisticated space program, the Times said. But an analysis of structures and ground markings at the facility strongly suggests, though does not prove, that it is developing the technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the researchers told the Times.
The Times contacted five outside experts who independently reviewed the findings and agreed there was compelling evidence Iran was developing long-range missile technology.
“The investigation highlights some potentially disturbing developments,” said Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who reviewed the material. The evidence was circumstantial, he said, but it could show preliminary steps “for developing an ICBM five to 10 years down the road, should Tehran wish to do so.”
The researchers, operating from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, searched satellite photos of the area around Shahrud. They found a crater with two telltale ground scars. They were larger than those at Iran’s known missile test facilities.
The scars were recent. One first appeared in satellite photos in 2016, the other in June 2017.
The researchers found test stands of the type used to make ground tests of missile engines. Such structures typically weigh four to six times the thrust of the engine being tested. And they are concrete, allowing their weight to be inferred from their dimensions.
The researchers said Shahrud’s 2017 test used a stand estimated at 370 tons, suggesting the engine powered between 62 and 93 tons of thrust — enough for an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach any part of the United States. Two as-yet-unused test stands are even larger, they said.
There were other hints. The Shahrud base appears to house three pits of the sort used for casting or curing rocket components, the researchers say. One pit, at 5.5 meters in diameter, is far larger than those used for Iran’s medium-range missiles.
