March 17, 2023
The Islamic Republic has once again made vague promises to respond better to the demands of the IAEA that the agency be allowed to once again observe all that Iran is doing in its nuclear program.
UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi hailed “a marked improvement” after his two days of discussions with the Iranian government early in March.
On returning to Vienna March 4, he told reporters the Islamic Republic had agreed to reconnect surveillance cameras at several nuclear sites and increase the scale of inspections. But two days later, he backtracked and said it would take further negotiations to determine just what of the requests the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has made Iran will accept.
Iran is believed to have loosened up after Grossi said he was no longer able to assure the IAEA member states that Iran was not diverting uranium to weapons use because his inspectors were no longer allowed to see enough of what Iran was doing in its nuclear program.
The second issue outstanding is Iran’s refusal to answer IAEA questions about three sites Iran says were never part of its nuclear program but where the IAEA has found residue of enriched uranium. Iran said only that it would “provide further information and access.”
The third issue is to explain why the IAEA also found uranium enriched to 83.7 percent purity when Iran said it has capped enrichment at 60 percent. (And the JCPOA caps enrichment at 3.67 percent until 2030.)
The world was most captivated by the report of the 83.7 percent enrichment, especially as a US official said that is very close to the 90 percent purity needed for a bomb. Under Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl told a congressional hearing that Iran now has so much uranium enriched to 60 percent that it could produce enough enriched to 90 percent to make one bomb within 12 days. Actually, 90 percent purity is not needed for a bomb; it is just more efficient. The bombed dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 contained uranium enriched to between 80 and 85 percent.
On his return to Vienna, Grossi recalled there had been “a reduction in monitoring activities related to cameras and monitoring systems” and said “we have agreed that those will be operating again.”
He didn’t give any numbers but implied that the IAEA would now have the same monitoring it had in 2019 before Iran started cutting back its access.
“This is very, very important” in terms of continuity of knowledge, “in particular in the context of the possibility of the revival of JCPOA,” he said.
But two days later, he backtracked and acknowledged that exactly what inspection authority Iran would give the IAEA had to be negotiated.
He said the measures should be in place “very soon” following a technical meeting.
The uranium particles enriched up to 83.7 percent were detected at Iran’s underground Fordo plant. Grossi said the IAEA needed to further inspect the facility and that Iran had agreed to “50 percent more inspections” there.
Iran’s government first denied flatly that it ever enriched any uranium to 83.7 percent. But it later admitted that report was true. It said “unintended fluctuations … may have occurred” during the enrichment process. Many were not impressed, seeing the difference between the 60 percent cap and the 83.7 percent detected as too large for an equipment fluctuation. Many speculated that Iran was intentionally experimenting with higher enrichment. But it must be noted that only tiny amounts enriched to 83.7 percent were detected.
The discovery came after Iran had substantially modified an interconnection between two centrifuge clusters enriching uranium, without declaring it to the IAEA, as required by its agreement with the IAEA.
It needs to be noted that having enough enriched uranium to make a bomb does not mean Iran would be able to make a bomb. The US intelligence community continues to say that Iran has not mastered the technology to make a bomb and also lacks the missile technology to loft a bomb.
Britain, France and Germany told the quarterly meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors that they were not happy with Iran’s vague pledges and the 83.7 percent particles. They issued a statement that essentially said they would give Iran three months, until the next Board of Governors meeting, to come clean. They did not say what they would do if Iran continued to stall. But the most likely IAEA action is to refer the matter to the UN Security Council. In that venue, however, Russia can veto any punitive action.
In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price said March 6, “Too many times in the past we’ve seen Iran issue vague promises, only never to follow through. We and the IAEA Board of Governors have been clear that Iran must cooperate with the IAEA fully and without delay.”
Here is the full text of what Iran signed and told the IAEA it would now do:
“1) Interactions between the IAEA and Iran will be carried out in a spirit of collaboration, and in full conformity with the competences of the IAEA and the rights and obligations of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on the comprehensive safeguards agreement.
“2) Regarding the outstanding safeguards issues related to the three locations, Iran expressed its readiness to continue its cooperation and provide further information and access to address the outstanding safeguards issues.
“3) Iran, on a voluntary basis will allow the IAEA to implement further appropriate verification and monitoring activities. Modalities will be agreed between the two sides in the course of a technical meeting which will take place soon in Tehran.”
The State Department is getting even more exasperated with the Islamic Republic, as telegraphed February 27 when State Department spokesman Ned Price said flatly that Iran was telling “lies,” an undiplomatic terms rarely used by the State Department. The issue was several statements that Iranian officials have made saying that Iran and the United States were in constant communication, exchanging messages about the prospects of renewing the JCPOA.
Price said there was no truth to that. “Only Iranian officials can speak to why they continue to tell these lies. Iranian officials can repeat their line as often as they want, but it doesn’t change the underlying facts. A revival of the JCPOA has not been on the agenda for months. We have not conveyed any message to the contrary. I can’t speak to why Iranian officials may be trying to deceive the rest of the world.”
Actually, many analysts believe the regime is trying to deceive the Iranian people. Whenever word circulates within Iran that the JCPOA is dead and sanctions will remain in place, the value of the rial sinks again. So, it is in the interest of the regime to make it appear renewal of the JCPOA-and the lifting of sanctions-is just around the corner.
Price said Washington has three goals it is trying to convey to Iran: “Stop killing your people; stop providing UAV [unmanned aerial vehicles or drones] technology to Russia; and release the wrongfully detained American citizens.”