nuclear talks with the Big Six—except that it won’t discuss its own nuclear program in those talks.
The regime clearly wants to portray itself as happy for diplomatic discussions, and does not want to be seen as a spoiler, preventing any resumption of talks.
But at the same time, it is doing nothing to speed the resumption and daily tosses another spanner into the works.
Little noted by the international media is the fact that Iran announced in August its willingness to meet in September, then in September it announced it was prepared to meet in October, and in October it said it was prepared to meet after November 10.
Last week, the government said everything was ready for talks and all that remained to be decided was the date, the place and the agenda. One might logically ask what else there is to decide before entering talks. Furthermore, the comment that the date and place remained to be decided came more than a week after the EU had proposed meeting November 15-17 in Vienna. The effect was to reject the EU proposal.
But the biggest spanner was thrown by the most obscure official—Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, who is President Ahmadi-nejad’s aide for press affairs. Discussing the proposed talks Sunday, Javanfekr said, “We will not talk about nuclear energy with the Western parties in these negotiations because there is criticism leveled against them in every field and they must be answerable.”
No one has contradicted what Javanfekr said in the days since.
Various Iranian officials have also said that more countries should be invited to take part in the talks. Iran has been saying that for months. It has never proposed any specific countries, however. The proposal is widely viewed as a delaying tactic, intended to take preparations for the talks off into a marsh. Italy last year said it wanted to be a party to the talks, but since Iran earlier this year suggested opening the talks to more countries, Italy has turned silent, not wanting to be tabbed in Europe as aiding an Iranian delaying tactic.
Iran has also demanded that the Big Six—China, Russia, Germany, France, Britain and the United States—answer three questions before talks resume, including what is their goal in the talks.
While Iran does not wish to talk about its nuclear program, it appears eager now to discuss a swap of fuel for the Tehran Nuclear Reactor, a small reactor that Iran’s uses to produce medical isotopes for Iranian hospitals. That reactor is shortly to run out of fuel. Iran has repeatedly said it will make the 20 percent enriched uranium required for that reactor and manufacture the uranium-aluminum alloy fuel plates to be inserted in the reactor. It is enriching uranium to 20 percent, but has not shown the International Atomic Energy Agency evidence that it is about to make the fuel plates.
The United States isn’t going easy on Iran with the fuel swap. The New York Times last week reported that Washington is talking with the Big Six about upping the group’s demands on the fuel swap.
The original proposal made 13 months ago was for Iran to provide Russia with 1,200 kilos of 3.5 percent enriched uranium that Russia would then enrich to 20 percent and that France would then make into fuel plates. The 1,200-kilo figure was chosen because a delivery to Russia of that volume would reduce Iran’s stock to less than the volume needed to make a single atomic bomb. The diplomatic goal was to ask Iran to provide an earnest of its declaration that it has no intention of making nuclear weapons by depriving itself of the enriched uranium it would need to make a bomb.
In the 13 months since that proposal was aired, Iran has made much more enriched uranium. Even if it gave up 1,200 kilos, it would be left with enough to make a bomb. The United States has proposed to the other members of the Big Six that they now demand Iran turn over 2,000 kilos of enriched uranium so Iran will be left with an insufficient amount to make a bomb.
The New York Times also said that the US proposal would require that Iran agree to stop further enrichment to 20 percent. But the proposal would not require Iran to stop its basic uranium enrichment to 3.5 percent. That was the original Big Six proposal made a few years ago. In effect, Iran has already won a major concession if the Big Six agree to resume talks while Iran continues to do low level enrichment. The goal of the talks from the Big Six perspective would remain to find a formula and a number of carrots that would convince the Islamic Republic to halt all uranium enrichment.
The State Department has said the Big Six has not yet agreed on any new proposal to make to Iran. It isn’t known if there is real opposition to the US ideas among the Big Six.
A key problem with the US proposal is that it will only achieve its goal for a brief while. Iran is still enriching uranium. Even if Iran agreed to give up 2,000 kilos, within another year it would again have enough enriched uranium to make a bomb.
The last talks by the Big Six with Iran were held October 1 last year. Later in October, a subset of the Big Six met with Iran to discuss the fuel swap. Iranian negotiators agreed in principle to the fuel swap, but once the idea was discussed by the political establishment back in Tehran, it was rejected.
by Warren L. Nelson