March 17, 2017
Iran poses the most significant threat to US interests in the Middle East, Centcom commander Gen. Joseph Votel told the Senate Armed Services Committee last Thursday, saying it is more dangerous in the long-run than Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State.
The Central Command or Centcom is the US military command that covers the Middle East and Central Asia, a 20-nation area that includes Iran.
“We are also dealing with a range of malign activities perpetrated by Iran and its proxies operating in the region,” Votel said. “It is my view that Iran poses the greatest long-term threat to stability for this part of the world.”
Votel also said Iran may stumble into war with the United States. He said he does not believe Iran understands that the United States is prepared to go to war with Iran to stop it.
Iranian activities of concern, according to Votel, include “malign influence across Iraq and Syria,” and efforts to prop up the Syrian regime and exploit Shia population concentrations.
The Centcom area of responsibility is “increasingly crowded” with external states, including Russia and China, that are pursuing their own interests in attempting to shift alliances, Votel said. Iran also complains about outside powers interfering in the region, but it cites mainly the United States and Britain and never cites Russia and China.
“The central region has come to represent the nexus for many of the security challenges our nation faces,” Votel said, “and, most importantly, the threats in this region continue to pose the most direct threat to the US homeland and the global economy.”
Violent extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are taking advantage of the fragile security environment of heightened ethno-sectarian tensions, economic uncertainty, and weak or corrupt governance, Votel said. “These groups have clearly indicated their desire and intent to attack the US homeland, our interests abroad and the interest of our partners and allies.”
He highlighted the importance of working with coalition members and partners on the ground. “As you are seeing clearly demonstrated in Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen and elsewhere throughout our area of responsibility, we have adopted a ‘by, with and through’ approach that places a heavy reliance on indigenous forces,” Votel said.
Still, the US recently sent additional forces to the region to help drive the Islamic State out of Raqqa, its “capital” in Syria. And Votel said he thought it would be necessary to send more American forces back into Afghanistan.
The rising US presence is exactly what the Islamic Republic does not wish to see.
In Tehran, the Foreign Ministry labeled Votel’s testimony “spiteful.”
Blaming all the disorders in the region on the United States, spokesman Bahram Qasemi said Saturday that everything would be fine again if the Americans would just get out. But Votel’s point was that the Islamic Republic would run rampant if the Americans did leave.
Qasemi said, “The injudicious and incorrect US policies have been the main reason behind the volatile, tense and unstable situation in the Middle East region over the past decades and recent years.”
He said the “wrong and meddlesome policies of US politicians” have generated the current tensions in the region.
“These mistakes are themselves a product of US officials’ excessive demands and lack of correct understanding and perception of the strategic and sensitive region of the Middle East and a result of their relentless support for the [Israeli] regime occupying Jerusalem.”
Qasemi said Votel’s allegations against the Islamic Republic are merely an attempt to divert attention from Washington’s role in the creation of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Votel saw Iran as trying to take advantage of many social and economic ills in the region and said military action by the US was not the solution to those ills.
In an unbelievably long sentence in his testimony, Votel said:
“The turbulence across the region reflects a number of contributing factors or ‘drivers of instability,’ including ethnic and sectarian hostilities between Shia and Sunnis, and Arabs and Persians; economic uncertainty and sustained low oil prices that severely strain energy-based economies across the region, contributing to reduced government services and weakened prospects for economic growth; a disproportionately large youth population facing increasing poverty and unemployment, which may make them susceptible to unrest, radical ideologies, and VEO [Violent Extremist Organizations] recruitment; expanding ungoverned or under-governed spaces, exploited by VEOs; civil wars, which are ‘engines of instability’ all by themselves; worsening humanitarian crises, contributing to growing refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) populations; and competition among outside actors, including Russia and China, seeking to promote their interests and supplant US influence in the region.”
After that long list, Votel said, “We need to find ways to address these and other root causes of instability if we hope to achieve lasting positive effects in that part of the world. This cannot be accomplished solely through military means. The military can help to create the necessary conditions; however, there must be concomitant progress in other complementary areas (e.g., reconstruction, humanitarian aid, stabilization, political reconciliation).”
Votel then spoke at considerable length about Iran. He said:
“Iran poses the most significant threat to the Central Region and to our national interests and the interests of our partners and allies. We have not seen any improvement in Iran’s behavior since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), addressing Iran’s nuclear program, was finalized in July 2015.
“Iran aspires to be a regional hegemon and its forces and proxies oppose US interests in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, and seek to hinder achievement of US objectives in Afghanistan and some Central Asian States. They also are working to subvert the GoI [Government of Iraq] by establishing a long-term presence within Iraq’s security forces. Of note, Iran exerts influence and a degree of control over the majority of the nearly 100,000 Shia militia [members inside Iraq]. Furthermore, Iran has expanded cooperation with Russia in Syria in ways that threaten US interests in the region.”
Votel then turned to Iran’s tactics in the region, saying they are not intended to bring about war with the United States, but warning that they could well do that. “Iran implements its strategy primarily within the ‘gray zone,’ the space short of conventional conflict where miscalculation can easily occur, leading to escalatory conflict and misunderstanding.
“Iran fosters instability by funding and promoting a threat network that employs provocation, violence, and covert arms transfers that serve as the stimulants for a range of conflicts across the region. It complements this subversive arm with conventional military provocation and overt threats to close key maritime sea lanes, especially at critical international economic chokepoints, namely the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait [at the southern end of the Red Sea], which puts global political stability and economic prosperity at risk.
“Recognizing that Iran poses the greatest long-term threat to U.S. interests in the Central Region, we must seize opportunities to both reassure our allies and shape Iran’s behavior. In order to contain Iranian expansion, roll back its malign influence, and blunt its asymmetric advantages, we must engage them more effectively in the ‘gray zone’ through means that include a strong deterrence posture, targeted counter-messaging activities, and by building partner nations’ capacity.
“Through both messaging and actions, we must also be clear in our communications and ensure the credibility of US intentions,” Votel said, indicating he does not believe that Iran understands the United States is prepared to go to war to stop it. “Iran must believe there will be prohibitive consequences if it chooses to continue its malign activities designed to foment instability in the region. The US Government should also consider communicating directly with Iran’s leadership to improve transparency and lessen the potential for miscalculation.”
Votel concluded, “While Iran continues to pose the most significant threat to regional security, we remain optimistic and believe that by taking proactive measures and reinforcing our resolve we can lessen Iran’s ability to negatively influence outcomes in the future.”