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Iran and US are Talking But About Just What?

The US and Iran have begun talks on a new agreement, but with more questions than answers about what the agreement might embrace. 

President Trump has openly and repeatedly said he will “bomb” Iran if it does not sign an agreement that guarantees it will not build nuclear weapons and provides the means to verify that. He has repeatedly said that the “only” thing he will not let Iran have is a nuclear bomb. 

ARAQCHI WITKOFF
. . . pair talk from differemt rooms

But many of his supporters in Congress and many of the officials he has appointed to his administration want much more than that. They grit their teeth and say that Trump is simply proposing a return to the 2015 agreement President Obama reached with Iran while ignoring things like missiles that can devastate neighbors and proxies that can do Iran’s dirty work around the world. 

The Administration went into the talks with Iran April 12 but didn’t hold an internal discussion on the US position until April 15. A common criticism of the 

Administration is that it doesn’t think things through before it takes action and this was a good example of that “Ready, Fire, Aim” propensity. 

Ambassador Steve Witkoff opened two hours of “indirect” talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Oman April 12. Araqchi said the talks were good because the US agreed to allow Iran to continue enriching uranium. 

On the afternoon of April 14, Witkoff publicly said Iran could continue to enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent, the same ceiling in the Obama agreement, but would have to stop its current enrichment up to 60 percent, almost weapons-quality. 

The next morning, Trump convened a meeting on the Iran negotiations in the Oval Office. Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance argued for the 3.67 percent ceiling. But National Security Adviser Michael Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued for a demand that all enrichment be ended and that Iran’s nuclear industry mining, refining, and enriching of uranium be completely “dismantled.” 

Hours later Witkoff posted on social media that Iran would have to dismantle its nuclear industry: “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program,” he wrote. (The term is “uranium enrichment,” not nuclear enrichment a minor slip-up, but one that underscores for many the fact that Witkoff was developing Manhattan real estate until January and has no background in international relations or nuclear science.) 

Witkoff also told Fox News that the 2015 Obama agreement “can be improved.” But that’s like waving a red flag in front of Republicans who view the 2015 agreement as an anathema that cannot be improved. 

Witkoff and Araqchi met again one week later on April 19. It was clear from the comments made afterward that Witkoff (meaning Trump) had accepted Iranian enrichment up to 3.67 percent, which Iran has said it would agree to. Iran also appeared to accept intrusive inspections in principle. 

The parties agreed that technical experts would meet in Oman April 23 to begin drafting a detailed text. That means the two parties have made real progress on the broad points. But will Iran balk when the US lays out what it wants as “intrusive inspections”? 

Araqchi and Witkoff also agreed to meet again in Oman April 26 for the third Saturday in a row, this time to go over what the technicians have drafted. 

Those developments solved possible show-stoppers in the talks but it left what could be a major issue when Trump tries to get an agreement accepted in Washington. 

After the first day of Araqchi-Witkoff talks, Trump doubled down on his effort to exude love for Iran. On April 17, he said, “It’s really simple. We’re not looking to take over their industry. We’re not looking to take over their land. All we’re saying is you can’t have nuclear weapons.” 

He said, “I want Iran to live happily and without death. And I would like this to be my first option. The second option would be very bad for Iran.” 

Then he said, “I think Iran wants to talk. I hope so. It would be very good for them if they did. I would like to see Iran flourish in the future.” 

And he closed with a paean to the people of Iran. “I know the Iranian people. They are wonderful. They are always smart, energetic and successful. I don’t want to do anything that will hurt anyone.” 

The Islamic Republic is using its own “love” approach. It has announced that it would welcome American investments if any agreement were reached.That was presumed to be a strained effort to appeal to Trump’s business interests. 

Trump sometimes departs from his loving approach. For example, in early April, he told NBC News, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. 

It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” There are many key questions that need to be addressed in the talks. Here are just 10 of them. 

1) Enrichment: What will be the limits on the number of centrifuges, on the types of centrifuges? Will Iran dispose of its highly enriched uranium? 

2) Duration: What will be the length of the deal? Parts of the Obama deal were due to expire later this year. Many people (including Trump) want permanent restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. 

3) Missiles: Republicans generally want a ban on missiles that can reach the US, but also Western Europe and Israel. The latter would mean dismantling missiles Iran already has. 

4) Proxies: Can Iran be forced to stop funding Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis? 

5) Sanctions: The Obama agreement lifted sanctions imposed for Iran’s nuclear program, but not those imposed for human rights violations, a chemical weapons program and other policies Washington carps about. 

6) Frozen assets: Iran wants to get its hands on billions of dollars in Iranian funds the United States has frozen around the world. Iran now is allowed to tap those funds only for imports of food and pharmaceuticals. 

7) FATF and SWIFT: The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has blacklisted Iran, meaning it doesn’t have access to any big banks around the world.

If Iran doesn’t get off the blacklist, it will have trouble recovering economically even if all sanctions are lifted. SWIFT has also blackballed Iran. It handles the electronic movement of banking funds all around the world. Again, if Iran isn’t restored to SWIFT, it will have trouble conducting routine financial transactions.

 8) The speed of the negotiations: The United States wants everything wrapped up in a few months (not the 20 months it took for the previous agreement) because the ability to “snap back” UN sanctions expires in October. 

Trump will have to start the actions to re-impose UN sanctions in September if no agreement has been reached by then, another five months. 

9) Guarantees: Iran is publicly demanding a guarantee that no future president will toss the agreement the way Trump did. The only way to bind a future president is to make the agreement a treaty, which requires a two-thirds vote by the Senate. For that many senators to vote yes, the treaty will have to be a lot harder on Iran than Iran seems willing to accept. 

10) Inspections: The Americans (and the International Atomic Energy Agency) want much more intrusive inspections than currently allowed. Many GOP senators don’t even trust the IAEA and want American inspectors running all over Iran to verify that Iran is adhering to the deal.

One thing not on this list is the way the Islamic Republic treats the Iranian people. Trump has been clear that he will allow the regime to do anything it wants internally if it agrees to the things he cares about.

Iran International published on April 17 what it said was a three-stage plan that Iran handed over to Witkoff on April 12. That plan is described in the graphic above. The proposal essentially amounts to a return to the old Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with some added benefits for Iran— all sanctions would be lifted (not just the nuclear ones); the option for “snapping back” UN sanctions would be eliminated; and all assets now frozen would be unfrozen completely but no added benefits for Washington. In other words, it is worse from a Trump perspective than the agreement he trashed in 2018! 

One interesting question is why Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi changed his mind and endorsed talks with Washington after many months of saying that was forbidden. The New York Times carried a story April 11 citing two unnamed senior Iranian officials as telling it that in March President Pezeshkian, a Reformist, Majlis Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, a moderate conservative, and Judiciary Chairman GholamHossain Mohseni-Ejai, a hardliner, sat down with Khamenehi and told him the Islamic Republic risks being toppled by the public if it fails to reach a deal with Washington that allows it to improve the economy. 

It was shortly after that meeting that Khamenehi announced that he approved of indirect talks, but not direct talks, with the Americans The distinction is that indirect talks use a mediator. The two parties are in different rooms and the mediator listens to one party, then goes to the other room and tells the second party what the first party said, then listens to the reply and goes back to the first room and repeats what he was just told. The bottom line is that the process doubles the amount of time involved and also introduces the problem that the mediator may miss significant nuances. 

Iran has long had a fear that foreigners could trick their own negotiators and so intermediaries should be used. Similarly, many Americans, mainly Republicans, are expressing fears that the inexperienced Witkoff may be taken advantage of by those wily Iranians! 

Some Republicans in the US oppose any effort to make a deal. Their opposition is fairly simple. They say the Islamic Republic cannot be trusted. This is a common view on the right about foreign governments in general. It, however, ignores the fact the Islamic Republic adhered to the JCPOA for three years until Trump broke the deal. 

As for Iran, Sadeq Zibakalam, a frequent political commentator outside the regime, said there are two groups in Iran unalterably opposed to any agreement with Washington. One is the Iranian variant of the anti-foreigner Americans. They are the extreme ideologues who have marinated in anti-American rhetoric for decades. The other group, Zibakalam said, are the “sanctions profiteers,” who have learned how to make sanctions pay (them) and want no change in the current system. 

In the Iranian media, far more space has been devoted to the issue of direct versus indirect talks than to any of the issues involved in the talks. 

Earlier, on March 29, Sky News Arabic published what it said were extracts from the letter Trump had sent Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi proposing the talks. That story said Trump wanted Iran’s proxies to be addressed along with the nuclear issue, but didn’t mention other topics. 

Trump cautioned Iran against supporting “terrorist organizations” and engaging in “military adventures,” warning that any threats to the US or its allies would be met with a strong response. “If you reject this extended hand, if the Iranian regime chooses the path of escalation, continued support for terrorist organizations, and military adventures, the response will be swift and decisive. We will not stand idly by in the face of threats from your regime against our people or our allies,” he asserted. That hints that restraints on Iran’s foreign actions need not be covered in the public agreement, but that Iran should know American bombers will be overhead if Iran continues its use of proxies to destabilize the Arab world.

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