Analysts generally assumed the Islamic Republic was freeing the men, Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, at least partly in an effort to avoid embarrassment during the visit.
Ahmadi-nejad announced the release in interviews with NBC News and The Washington Post, underscoring the fact that he was trying to address an American audience.
“I am helping to arrange for their release in a couple of days so they will be able to return home,” Ahmadi-nejad told the Post. “This is, of course, a unilateral humanitarian gesture. It is a unilateral pardon.”
But it wasn’t a pardon at all. The men’s lawyer, Masud Shafii, told reporters the Revolutionary Court told him the pair would be released upon payment of $500,000 bail each. Their convictions for espionage and illegal entry would remain in place. Technically, they would simply be freed pending a decision on their appeal of the conviction. But Ahmadi-nejad said they would be free to leave the country after their release.
In the United States, the families issued a brief statement saying they were “overjoyed” but had no details. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was “encouraged” but would have no further comment at the moment. Many in the United States were fearful that opponents of Ahmadi-nejad’s would un-do the release plan.
It was odd that Ahmadi-nejad mentioned a pardon. Only Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi can issue pardons. The presi-dent’s mention of a pardon simply underlined the fact that Khamenehi is not pardoning the men and has avoided making any gesture of reconciliation toward the United States.
It appeared the Islamic Republic was trying to have its cake and eat it, too. On the one hand, it would be able to tell its public the two men were proven to be dastardly spies. On the other hand, it could boot them out of the country and end a major element in friction with the US government and, more importantly, the American people.
The families of the men have been very vocal and active in keeping the case in the public eye in the United States, causing repeated embarrassment for the regime by angering even those Americans on the far left who disapprove of sanctions and American pressures on Iran’s nuclear program.
Ahmadi-nejad, in his standard manner, went on the offensive, trying to link the case of the hikers to the dozens of Iranians who have been convicted in the United States of violating US sanctions by shipping military material to Iran.
He began, however, by describing Evin prison as a hotel. “These two people [Bauer and Fattal] are living in a very good condition here in prison,” he told NBC’s “Today” show. “It’s like staying in a hotel. I think the problem is in the approach of American politicians and leaders; why are America’s leaders so hostile to us?
“Let me ask a question,” he continued. “Are they [Bauer and Fattal] really the problem? Do you know how many Iranians are now in American jails? They’re all human beings. It’s not only about two people in Iran,” he said, brushing aside the matter of guilt or innocence and treating the jailing of Iranians in America solely as a nationalist issue.
Bauer and Fattal, along with Sarah Shourd, were arrested July 31, 2009. Shourd was freed last year on payment of $500,000 bail by an unknown person, believed by many to be the sultan of Oman, who sought her release and flew her out of Iran.
Shourd later said the trio had been hiking in Iraqi Kurdistan when an armed guard ordered them to walk to him. She said he then told them they had been in Iraq when he signaled them but they were now in Iran. For that, they were arrested for illegal entry. They were later also charged with espionage and officials said they were caught with spying equipment.
Shafii, their lawyer, said that no evidence of any kind to support the charge of espionage was presented at their trial.
Shafii said Tuesday that the men’s families had been informed of the bail terms. It isn’t known if they have a million dollars; neither family is wealthy. But the case has received so much publicity that such a sum could certainly be raised through public appeals. The US government will not pay the money, which it views as a ransom sum, but will not stop others from paying it.
Bauer and Fattal were each sentenced to three years for illegal entry, an unusually long term, and five years for espionage, an unusually short term for that offense.
The hikers’ case is believed to have been tied up with internal political spats within the Islamic Republic. Hardline ideologues, who honestly believe the worst of the United States and are convinced the men really are spies, view it as weakness to free the men and wanted to see them serve their full terms.
Hardline pragmatists do not believe the charges against the men, but feel it is essential to build a wall between Iran and the outside world in order to protect and preserve the revolution. They want to maintain a high level of friction with the United States and see the hiker case as one tool in the execution of that policy. But they are also concerned about offending the American public, making more of them anti-Iran and possibly pro-war.
Soft ideologues loved the charges against the men, but didn’t want to go too far. They were happy with the convictions but didn’t see a need to keep the men in prison. They knew the men were innocent and were embarrassed at how much time the pair had to spend in jail. For the soft ideologues, the case served a useful purpose but they still felt sympathy for the victims.
Moderates want Iran to be respected around the world and saw the case as damaging to Iran’s long-term interests. They have been trying from the beginning two years ago to have the charges dropped. Many moderates are in the Foreign Ministry and likely impressed Ahmadi-nejad with the threat Iran’s treatment of the men posed for his visit to New York, where he might hear of little other than this case. The UN General Assembly session begins September 22.
The release on bail appears to be a compromise among factions. The men go home, but their convictions remain. Ahmadi-nejad gets to boast in New York that he is a humanitarian, and Iran gets to strip a million dollars from American pockets.
If the men are indeed freed and allowed to go home, the next development in the case is expected to be the wedding of Shourd and Bauer with Fattal as best man, a plan that was announced last year.